Twins vs. Marlins: Backing Buxton | July 1, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue Jul 01, 2025, 5:56 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Twins vs. Marlins: Byron Buxton finds himself in a favorable spot at the top of the Twins lineup against Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. His metrics suggest he is primed to bounce back after a hitless effort on Sunday. The matchup, the ratings, and the pitch data all line up.
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Twins vs. Marlins Best Bets – July 1
Will there some Byron Buxton magic in the 305?
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Twins leadoff hitter Byron Buxton enters today with a great matchup against Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. Buxton holds the third-best rating in this matchup in the default Batters-Box ratings and ranks fourth for the current season.
In 60 great-rated matchups, Buxton records at least one hit 65% of the time, two hits 30% of the time, and goes over this prop in 50% of them. That is a strong sample at the great-rating level. The 31-year-old center fielder has produced almost identical splits on the road—batting .279 with a .536 slugging percentage and a .978 OPS.
Cabrera is allowing right-handed hitters to hit over .260 this season, with a .412 slugging percentage and a .738 OPS. Over the past three years, he has posted a poor average hitter matchup ISO. His best pitch is the slider, graded at 1.67—well above league average. Buxton has handled sliders well this season, with a 1.9 run value per 100 pitches, a .907 OPS, and a 163 wRC+.
After going hitless on Sunday, Buxton is in a strong bounce-back spot and well positioned to deliver at the top of the lineup.
Best Bet: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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