Tigers vs. Twins: Total Base Prop Predictions | August 14, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Thu Aug 14, 2025, 6:51 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Tigers vs. Twins: Yup, that is correct. We are going right back to Riley Greene after a quiet 0-3 with a walk yesterday on the Southside. The "day after theory" is in full effect, and tonight's matchup in Minnesota could not be more inviting. At plus money, I am more than willing to take another swing.
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Last Month: 64-96 (+7.53u)
Last Week: 16-20 (+3.77u)
Tigers vs. Twins Best Bets – August 14
Can Riley Greene continue to shine against Bailey Ober this eveing?
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We are running it back with Riley Greene after he went 0-3 with a walk yesterday on the Southside. I believe he is due for a bounce back and has a strong matchup this evening in Minnesota. At plus money to ride out the "day after theory," pull my leg.
The Tigers have three elite rated hitters today on Batters-Box, and of the three, I believe Riley Greene has the better matchup over Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter. Greene's best split is on the road against right handed pitchers, where he owns a .311 batting average, 1.029 OPS, and 182 wRC+.
Greene vs. Ober
Today he takes on the always hittable Bailey Ober, who holds a poor rating and a poorly rated matchup wOBA, ISO, and ground ball percentage. The Twins right hander leans heavily on his fastball, which is his best pitch, while the rest of his arsenal is below league average. Against the last 60 left handed hitters he has faced this season, Ober has allowed a 4.85 HR/9, while opposing left handers have posted a .353 xBA, .717 xSLG, and .407 xwOBA.
For those who tailed Greene's hit prop yesterday, his hit prop today sits at -230 or higher. He once again has strong numbers against this pitch mix. This feels like a strong spot for him to break out offensively.
I have also sprinkled on Greene's home run at +330. I almost always sprinkle on any hitter I believe will go over his bases to also leave the yard. If you are backing a hitter for success at the plate, you are aiming for the ceiling. Take the home run as well this evening for an additional sweat. Sprinkle, but do not go crazy.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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