Rockies vs. Astros: First Five Props | August 26, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Tue Aug 26, 2025, 1:51 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Rockies vs. Astros:Tuesday night baseball brings a full slate and plenty of opportunity to find the perfect spot. After a strong start to the week, the focus turns to one matchup that stands out above the rest. The Astros face the Rockies in game one of this three-game series, and the conditions could not be better for an early offensive explosion. One struggling Rockies starter and a red-hot Houston lineup create a scenario begging for action.
Tonight, the first five innings could set the tone, and one prop in particular has caught my eye. The Astros have been clicking against right-handed pitching, and the Rockies' pitching staff is thin and inconsistent. This feels like the perfect setup for a strong, early push from Houston, and the numbers back it up.
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Last Month: 74-100 (+12.37)
Last Week: 13-20 (+0.14)
Rockies vs. Astros Best Bets – August 26
Can Hunter Brown hold down one of the most exciting offense since the break?
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Shockingly, we are getting a juicier price on the Astros first five team total than we did with the scorching hot New York Yankees. I will still happily pay $1.30 for this team to have some early success against a Rockies starter, especially one who has struggled all season long.
We enter game one of this three-game series between the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros. The Rockies have been eliminated from playoff contention and are now playing for pride the rest of the season. Meanwhile, the Astros are trying to hold onto the number one spot in the AL West, with the Mariners breathing down their necks.
Tanner Gordon's Struggles
Houston has a great opportunity tonight to add to their slight lead in the division if they can feast on the horrendous arms Colorado will throw out this week. The first victim is Tanner Gordon, who shut down the Dodgers last week. Luckily for us, Gordon has owned a 7.11 ERA and 1.67 WHIP this season. I will not mention his 13.14 ERA and .419 opponent batting average on the road, because it is only three starts, but YIKES. I will mention his last five starts, where he has an 11.39 ERA, 6.65 xERA, and 4.86 xFIP. Opposing hitters have a .346 xBA, .597 xSLG, and .408 xwOBA, while making nearly 50% hard contact. Overall this season, Gordon is allowing 7.11 hits, 2.22 extra-base hits, and 4.33 runs per start. Opposing hitters are slashing .333/.373/.516/.888 against him.
It only gets worse, as Gordon has the second worst pitcher rating on the day, per Batters-Box. He owns a poorly rated matchup in wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He has allowed over 40% hard contact to opposing hitters over the last three seasons. This season he is allowing over 45% hard contact.
Houston's Trends
The Astros have the highest rated offense on the day, featuring five elite-rated hitters, six above the ground ball rate, and none rated poor or above the strikeout rate. Houston has been middle of the pack this season in first five scoring, averaging 2.37 runs per first five innings. At home they are approaching 2.5 runs, but this feels like a strong spot for this offense to explode.
Seven of Houston's top eight rated hitters will bat from the right side tonight. Right-handed hitters have been giving Gordon trouble all season. Over the last 90 right-handed hitters faced, they own a .378 xBA, .529 xSLG, and .356 xwOBA. Gordon has a 6.16 ERA in those matchups, allowing 44% hard contact and an 8.2% barrel rate.
Houston has been excellent against right-handed pitching. In their last 90 plate appearances against a right-handed pitcher, five hitters are hitting above .250 with a wOBA above .325, slugging above .440, and OPS of .740.
Despite the Astros advanced stats showing a minor slump over the last two weeks, this feels like the perfect spot to back them in the first five innings. If Gordon continues tossing up meatballs, this offense should get back into a groove, and we can enjoy a sweat-free cash.
This matchup checks all the boxes for an early Astros explosion. Gordon has shown cracks all season, and right-handed hitters are primed to feast tonight. Houston's lineup is firing on all cylinders, and the home crowd adds another layer of momentum. Expect the Astros to attack aggressively from the first pitch and set the tone for the rest of the series. If they continue capitalizing on Gordon's struggles, this should be an easy, sweat-free cash for the first five innings.
Best Bet: Astros First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-130) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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