With Paul Skenes continuing his run at the NL Cy Young award, I tear up my 12/1 ticket on Zack Wheeler. Tonight, we look to back Skenes at home against a Reds lineup that has been overly aggressive at the plate in recent weeks. This is a strong spot to ride one of the league's most dominant arms to clear his strikeout prop.
His strikeout prop is set at 7.5, priced at $1.10. Skenes enters today with the best rating on Batters-Box—color me shocked, as there are only four games on the slate. He boasts an elite average hitter matchup K%. When holding that elite K% rating, the star right-hander records seven strikeouts 57% of the time, eight 49%, and nine 25%. That is over a 35 elite rating sample size.
Reds vs. Skenes
He faces a Reds lineup with eight hitters above the league strikeout rate, per Batters-Box. Seven of their hitters have strikeout rates above 21% on the road this season. Six are above that mark in their last ten games, and seven are above it over their last five.
Skenes is averaging 6.2 strikeouts per home start this season. He is coming off an eight-strikeout outing in Colorado—a game where he likely should have finished with more. But we all know how tough it is to pitch in Denver, especially past the fifth inning as hitters get a third look.
I did not ladder the prop, as the prices did not quite grab me. However, I still think he has another dominating performance this evening.
Pay the $1.10 juice. Skenes is good for it.
