Who needs breakfast? Who needs lunch when we can be feasting on player props? We have day baseball today, and we are due for a good one. This afternoon, we will be all over Reds superstar Elly De La Cruz's bases prop — over 1.5 at +115.
The switch-hitting shortstop finds himself with an elite rating in this matchup against Nationals starter Michael Soroka. When earning an elite rating on Batters-Box, Cruz carries strong trends. In 39 elite-rated road matchups, he records at least one hit 69% of the time, two hits 30%, and goes over this bases prop 51% of the time.
He is coming off a 1-for-4 game with a double last night. Since returning from the All-Star break, he has just three hits in five games. He is due for an explosive outing.
De La Cruz vs. Soroka
Soroka enters with poorly-rated matchup metrics in both wOBA and ISO. Left-handed hitters have been his kryptonite this season — they are batting .256 with a .481 SLG and .820 OPS. At home, he holds a 5.06 ERA with a .242 opponent batting average. Through 14 starts, he is allowing 4.4 hits and 1.78 extra-base hits per game.
The 27-year-old right-hander throws fastballs 44% of the time, and we love that. Especially with how well De La Cruz has handled the pitch this season. Opposing hitters are batting .276 with a .904 OPS and 160 wRC+ against Soroka's fastball. His curveball is his best pitch, thrown around 35% of the time. Fortunately for us, De La Cruz is crushing curveballs this year — hitting .344 with a .931 OPS and 171 wRC+.
Getting plus money on the best hitter in the Reds lineup to go over his bases prop feels like tremendous value. De La Cruz has shown he plays slightly better during the day — let us hope that continues against a struggling arm.
Best Bet: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) odds via BetOnline
