We head down to Houston, where the Astros host the Red Sox on a rather sleepy Monday slate. We will be wide awake for this one, as Garrett Crochet takes the mound for Boston. The Red Sox ace left hander has been a strikeout machine away from Fenway, with his prop set at 7.5 and priced at +110.
The Trend is Your Friend
When elite on Batters-Box, Crochet delivers. In 14 elite matchup strikeout percentages, he records:
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6+ strikeouts: 78%
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7+ strikeouts: 71%
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8+ strikeouts: 64%
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9+ strikeouts: 42%
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10+ strikeouts: 35%
This season, in 11 elite pitcher ratings, the left hander posts:
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6+ strikeouts: 90%
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7+ strikeouts: 90%
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8+ strikeouts: 72%
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9+ strikeouts: 63%
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10+ strikeouts: 36%
It gets better. Crochet on the road this year averages 8.33 strikeouts per start. Among today's starters, he owns the highest strikeout percentage in the last 120 batters faced on the road at 30.3%. Against his last 90 right handed batters, he ranks third, and in his last five road games, he ranks second overall.
Crochet vs. Astros
Tonight, he faces a Houston lineup with eight hitters above the league strikeout rate and five above the league ground ball rate. Over the last four weeks at home, the Astros have the fourth highest strikeout percentage at 24.3%.
Five Houston hitters own a strikeout percentage above 21.9% in their last 90 plate appearances versus left handed pitching. One of their elite rated bats, Victor Caratini, also holds the highest strikeout rate on the team during that span at 30%.
With trends this strong, this is a prime ladder spot. However, eight strikeouts at +110 is already an excellent price.
