Rays vs. Blue Jays: First Five Props | September 26, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Sat Sep 27, 2025, 5:54 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Rays vs. Blue Jays:
The AL East has turned into a nail-biting race, and tonight's matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays could shift the balance once again. Toronto enters the finale after dropping two of three to the Red Sox, which leaves them tied with the Yankees for first place. Yes, they own the tiebreaker, but that advantage means little if they cannot find consistency down the stretch. Every game matters now, and the pressure is starting to mount.
On the other side, Tampa Bay is no longer chasing October, but that does not make them irrelevant. The Rays thrive in the role of spoiler, and pride alone can fuel a dangerous lineup. A win here could derail Toronto's division hopes and send the Yankees into the driver's seat. With Shane Bieber getting the ball for the Blue Jays and Tampa's bats lining up for opportunity, the stage is set for high drama.
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Rays vs. Blue Jays Best Bets – September 26
Can the Rays upset the Blue Jays in the final series of the season?
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The series finale between the Rays and the Blue Jays sets the stage for plenty of drama. Toronto just dropped two of its last three to the Red Sox, which leaves them tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East. They hold the tiebreaker, but that only matters if they can find some momentum before October arrives.
Tampa Bay is coming off its own struggles, losing two of three to the Orioles, but the Rays are still dangerous in this spot. With nothing left to play for except pride and the chance to spoil Toronto's division hopes, they become the kind of team bettors should circle. That is why I love Tampa's first five team total tonight at 1.5, sitting close to plus money. That number feels like a gift.
The Gift
As I always say, if you trust an offense and see a first five total at 1.5, you bet it. Unless the price climbs above -180, it is almost always value. Teams consistently score more than two runs through five innings, and the matchup favors hitters. When books hang a 1.5, they are simply asleep at the wheel.
The Rays come in with the second-highest rated offense today. Their lineup has three elite bats, three more graded as great, six above the league strikeout rate, and eight above the ground ball rate, per Batters-Box.
Rays vs. Bieber
They now face Shane Bieber, who has been steady for Toronto since the trade but has shown serious cracks against right-handed hitters. At home, righties are torching him for a .343 average, .657 SLG, and .430 wOBA. His most recent stretch has been even worse: the last 30 right-handers he faced posted a .383 xBA, .715 xSLG, and .413 xwOBA. That came with a 6.84 xERA, just a 13% strikeout rate, and a 12% barrel rate.
The Rays average 2.55 first-five runs on the road this year, while Toronto gives up 2.33 at home. Bieber has surrendered two or more runs in four of his six starts.
Everything points toward another rough outing, which makes this prop one of the best spots on the board. If Tampa shows up ready to swing, they can spoil Toronto's night and maybe the division race with it. Hopefully, the Rays can show up and make this an exciting Friday night in Toronto.
Best Bet: Rays First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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