Rangers vs. Royals: First Five Team Totals | August 20, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Wed Aug 20, 2025, 1:35 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Rangers vs. Royals: When the books set a first five team total at 1.5, you should always take notice. Most teams average over two runs in the opening five innings, so when the number is offered at a fair price, it is often a gift.
The Kansas City Royals fit that mold today, and the matchup lines up perfectly. With a red-hot offense and Kumar Rocker's glaring road struggles, this spot is one I cannot ignore.
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Last Month: 75-105 (+11.05u)
Last Week: 22-22 (+8.0u)
Rangers vs. Royals Best Bets – August 20
Can Vinnie Pasquantino get it going for the Royals tonight?
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I have said this before, and I will continue saying it. If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average over two runs in the first five innings to begin with, and you are getting a prop on an offense you trust against a pitcher who is probably not good enough to deserve that amount of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.
That is why we are all over the Kansas City Royals today in the first five. Their prop is set at 1.5 and priced at -140. That is a fair price for a team averaging 2.18 runs per first five. Yes, they have struggled at home, averaging under two runs per first five, but that does not concern me.
The Royals are on fire as of late. Over the last two weeks, they rank sixth in wRC+ and ISO, while sitting fourth in hard hit rate and fifth in both wOBA and OPS.
Kansas City enters today with the fourth highest rated offense on the slate per Batters-Box. Their lineup features four elite rated hitters, none above the strikeout rate and six above the ground ball rate. That may seem high, and Texas starter Kumar Rocker is a good ground ball pitcher, but in his last five road starts his ground ball rate sits under 43 percent.
Rockers vs. Royals
Rocker enters with the sixth worst pitcher rating on the day, carrying poor marks in matchup ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He has allowed 43.48% hard contact this season, second most among today's starters. On the road, the 25-year-old owns a 9.29 ERA and .346 OBA, allowing 5.75 hits and 4.12 runs per start.
It gets worse when you zoom in on his last five road starts. Rocker has a 7.04 ERA, 7.53 xERA, and 4.87 xFIP during that span, while allowing 54.5% hard contact, a 17% barrel rate, and 2.74 HR/9. Hitters have posted a .318 xBA, .637 xSLG, and .430 xwOBA against him in those outings.
Paying $1.40 for this Royals offense, which has been scorching hot, to score two early runs is a bet I cannot pass up. With Rocker's road struggles staying as consistent as they come, I am locked in on the Royals first five over 1.5 runs.
GO YALS!!
Best Bet: Royals First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-140) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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