Pirates vs. Orioles: Strikeout Props | September 10, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Wed Sep 10, 2025, 3:03 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Pirates vs. Orioles: When the dust settles on the 2025 season, Paul Skenes will stand as one of the brightest young stars in baseball. Tonight, he has every chance to put an exclamation point on his campaign with another dominant strikeout performance. The matchup is ideal, the metrics back it, and the Orioles are striking out at alarming rates. Betting on Skenes has been one of the sharpest plays all season, and this final opportunity feels no different. Whether he gives us six innings or more, the strikeout upside is undeniable. Ride the ladder, enjoy the sweat, and let Skenes close the show.
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Last Month: 53-87 (-3.86u)
Last Week: 9-21 (-5.38u)
Pirates vs. Orioles Best Bets – September 10
Can we be blessed with one last Paul Skenes masterclass?
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I feel it. This could be the final outing of the season for Mr. Paul Skenes, your 2025 NL Cy Young Award winner. Why do I think this is his last appearance of the year? Why is he even taking the mound tonight? The Pirates are not making the postseason. If anything, it almost feels reckless that he is out there. His last start was a gem against the Dodgers, where he struck out eight. That should have been the perfect sendoff into the offseason. Instead, we get one more opportunity to back him. For us degenerates, it is a gift.
Tonight we are on Skenes over 7.5 strikeouts at +108. It is a great price for one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. On the road, he averages just over six punchouts per game. That number makes sense with how the books have set this line, but the upside is real.
The Pirates' ace enters tonight with the highest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage on Batters-Box. He also owns an elite pitcher rating, and when he grades out elite, the trends are strong. In 22 elite-rated road starts, Skenes has struck out 6+ hitters 86% of the time, 7+ 50%, and 8+ 36%. With an elite matchup strikeout percentage, he remains just as reliable. In 21 such starts, he has hit 7+ strikeouts 52% of the time, 8+ 42%, and 9+ 28%. Overall, home or away, he is striking out eight hitters nearly half the time.
In his last five road starts, the young star has posted a 31% strikeout rate. Against left-handed bats, he has been dominant. Baltimore's top-rated hitters on Batters-Box are mostly left-handed, and in his last 60 faced, he has fanned them at a 35% clip.
We are only getting started with these numbers, so buckle up.
The Orioles have been one of the more swing-happy teams in baseball over the past few weeks, and it has not worked in their favor. Tonight they bring nine hitters above the league-average strikeout rate based on Batters-Box's three-year data set. Looking at only the current season, that number sits at eight.
At home in the last month, Baltimore owns the fourth-highest strikeout percentage in baseball. Over the last three weeks, they rank third. Over the last two weeks, they rank second. Is your mouth watering too?
Yes, I laddered Skenes up to 11+ strikeouts. The prices are too good. How could we not debate climbing the ladder here? The risk is that he only goes five innings, but I can live with that being the lone concern. Meanwhile, the Orioles simply cannot stop striking out.
Paul Skenes has been the story of the 2025 season. The second year star has not only lived up to the hype, he has dominated to the point of locking down the NL Cy Young. Tonight could mark his final start of the year (I am hoping), and while the Pirates have nothing left to play for, we as bettors still have one more shot to back the strikeout machine. The matchup is a dream, the numbers are strong, and the trends all point in our favor. One more ride with Skenes, and it could be the perfect sendoff to his breakout season.
Best Bet: Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+108) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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