It has been a while since I have found a spot I loved to back Phillies red hot slugger, Kyle Schwarber, and tonight on the Southside feels like the right time.
Entering this matchup, Schwarber owns the highest hitter rating on both of Batters-Box's datasets for this matchup. He carries an Elite rating in the Current Season rankings. When he earns that rating, he records a hit nearly 70% of the time, goes over this prop 59% of the time, clears 1.5 hits, runs, RBI in 63% of those games, and hits a home run nearly 32% of the time.
Schwarber vs. Martin
After an 0-4 outing on Sunday, Schwarber gets a bounce back opportunity against White Sox starter Davis Martin. While Martin performs a bit better at home, his advanced metrics show left handed hitters should be having more success against him. The right hander owns a .300 xBA, 48% hard-hit rate, and 5.77 xERA against lefties, according to Handigraphs.
On the flip side, Schwarber is crushing right handed pitching on the road. He is batting .294 with a 1.120 OPS and 205 wRC+ in those situations. Martin leans on his fastball and changeup 54% of the time, with the remaining 46% of his arsenal falling well below league average.
That works in our favor. Schwarber thrives against both fastballs and changeups, owning a .288 or better average, a 1.026 OPS or better, and a 191 wRC+ or better against each pitch type.
I do not love paying the juice, but this spot calls for it. Schwarber has been seeing the ball extremely well, batting .279 with a .778 SLG and 1.123 OPS over the last 15 days. I will sprinkle on the home run at 2/1 — it is a short number, but I believe he launches one.
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline
