Phillies vs. Nationals (Oct. 2): Can Corbin upset the odds and help Brewers?

Eddie Griffin

Faced with the prospect of again ending a postseason drought that has persisted since 2011, the Philadelphia Phillies have done anything but a fantastic job of closing the deal.

But thanks to the Milwaukee Brewers doing an even worse job of capitalizing on numerous opportunities, the Phillies maintain a one-game advantage for the final NL wild-card spot entering today’s series finale against the Washington Nationals.

Yesterday, the two teams split a doubleheader, with Washington winning the first game 13-4 and Philadelphia taking an 8-2 win in the nightcap.

It looked like the Phillies and Brewers would go into today with identical 85-73 records, but for the second time in three games, the Brew Crew blew a late, late lead against the Miami Marlins.

With a trip to Houston ahead for the Phils, their place in the postseason is anything but secure. But thanks to the Brewers’ failures to finish, a win today would further reduce Milwaukee’s remaining margin for more such fumbles and bumbles.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (85-73, 38-39 away, 3rd in the NL East) vs. Washington Nationals (55-103, 26-54 home, 5th in the NL East)
  • Venue & Location: Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)
  • Date: Sunday, October 2, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:35 p.m. Eastern Time

Phillies vs. Nationals Pitching Matchup

  • Philadelphia: RHP Zack Wheeler (2022: 25 starts, 11-7, 2.92 ERA)
  • Washington: LHP Patrick Corbin (2022: 30 starts, 6-18, 6.08 ERA)

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

  • Philadelphia Phillies -245
  • Washington Nationals +205

Over/Under

  • Over 7.5 (-120)
  • Under 7.5 (-102)

Run Line

  • Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-142)
  • Washington Nationals +1.5 (+118)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Betting Picks

Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Nationals to win

Phillies vs. Nationals Picks: Nationals team total over 2.5 runs (Best Value: -115 at BetMGM), Nationals +1.5 (Best Value: +120 at BetMGM), Nationals ML (Best Value: +210 at BetRivers)

Wheeler’s career numbers against the Nationals are not great at all, as he is 9-14 with a 4.44 ERA in 27 starts against Washington. Since joining the Phillies in 2020, he is 4-4 with a 3.44 ERA in nine starts, including a 3-1 with a 3.34 in five starts at Nationals Park.

Since returning from a stint on the IL, Wheeler has allowed one run, seven hits, and one walk and struck out eight in 10 IP across two starts against the Blue Jays and Cubs.

Run support was an issue for him in Tuesday’s 2-1 loss to the Cubs, as it has been on a number of occasions for him this season.

Tuesday was the 14th time this season that the Phillies have scored three or fewer runs in one of his starts, and that has happened in six of his last seven road starts.

That is a big concern, despite the favorable matchup. While Corbin has had yet another very forgettable season, there have been some positive numbers to hang his hat on recently.

Since giving up nine runs and eight hits in 3.1 innings against the Phillies on June 16, Corbin has had four quality starts in seven home starts.

If he can pitch well enough, there’s also a chance he could get some decent run support.

Batting Splits for the Washington Nationals

  • Batting average in day games: .261
  • BA in night games: .242
  • Runs per game in day games: 4.18
  • Runs per game in night games: 3.54
  • Batting average vs. RHP: .251
  • BA vs. LHP: .245
  • Batting average in games started by RHP: .252
  • BA in games started by LHP: .245

Some of those numbers can be taken with a grain of salt given that Juan Soto and Josh Bell are no longer there, but they have actually some solid performers at the plate since the trade, led by Joey Meneses, who is 6 for 11 with two doubles, a homer, and four RBI thus far in this series. At FanDuel, Meneses is +280 to have 2+ hits for the third time in the series and his fifth in nine games against the Phillies this season.

Wheeler’s OBA is much higher against righties (.247) than lefties (.199), and Washington went with all righties in both games of yesterday’s doubleheader.

There’s really not a lot of value in backing the Phillies here even with Wheeler on the mound, given how shaky they have been recently. So, even if you don’t opt to put some faith in the Nationals like I am here, it would be wise to keep the Phils out of any of your parlays today.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.