Padres vs. Nationals: Gavin Sheets Day? | July 18, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Wed Aug 13, 2025, 9:25 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Padres vs. Nationals: Gavin Sheets has burned me twice this season, but I am heading back to the well in a perfect matchup spot. The numbers support a strong bounce-back opportunity, especially with his elite rating and favorable splits against right-handed pitching. I am locking in on a total bases angle and breaking down why this is the time to trust him.
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Last Month: 45-112 (-20.6u)
Last Week: 5-10 (-0.6u)
Padres vs. Nationals Best Bets – July 18
Can Gavin Sheets continue to shine on the road?
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I am an absolute sucker for Gavin Sheets and I am desperate to cash a play on him this season. I am already 0-2 with him, failing to cash both his home run and HRR props a couple of weeks back, but this spot feels perfect.
The Padres outfielder finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season ratings. He has performed very well this year when holding that elite tag, posting the following in 19 games with that designation:
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Hit: 73%
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2+ Hits: 31%
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2+ Bases: 43%
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Home Run: 31%
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Single: 57%
Making the Most of This Data
I included the single trend for anyone worried about him not clearing his bases line and who may want a safer look. He has recorded eight singles, including twice hitting two singles in his last ten elite rating games. My suggestion is to pair him with another player to record a hit for plus money. I will have plenty more write-ups coming throughout the day, so if you want more leans on hitters, click this link. That said, I still love the total bases angle.
Sheets vs. Soroka
On the road this season against right-handed pitchers, the Padres lefty owns a .274 average, .857 OPS, and 137 wRC+. Sheets gets to face Michael Soroka, who has struggled against left-handed bats all season. The 27-year-old has allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings to lefties. He also owns a 5.67 ERA and a .250 opponent batting average at home. According to FanGraphs, 56% of his pitch mix is graded below league average—45% of that being his fastball. Sheets against fastballs this year has crushed, producing a 1.2 run value per 100, a .300 batting average, .929 OPS, and 168 wRC+.
I love the price. I love the matchup. This feels like the perfect spot to back Sheets on the road against a struggling arm.
Best Bet: Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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