MLB Postseason Player Props: Pitcher Specials | September 29, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Mon Sep 29, 2025, 1:32 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Postseason Props: The MLB postseason has finally arrived, and with it comes a fresh set of opportunities to attack player props in October. The regular season is behind us, and the intensity cranks up with every pitch. Pitchers are on shorter leashes, lineups get deeper looks, and every mistake is magnified on the biggest stage. This is where reputations are built-or broken. When scanning through the board of postseason specials, one name jumped out right away. A left-handed starter with postseason scars, familiar struggles, and an opponent that has consistently given him trouble. The spotlight will be bright, and for this particular arm, I see regression written all over the script. Unfortunately, that pitcher happens to be wearing pinstripes, and his name is Carlos Rodon.
Let's get into it!
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Player Prop Best Bets
Can Carlos Rodon maintain his regular season dominance?
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Postseason baseball is finally here, and it is time to dig into the player prop specials the books are dangling right before the Wild Card round gets underway. As I scrolled through the list of names, one arm immediately caught my attention. A southpaw who, in my eyes, is set up for a rough postseason run. That pitcher happens to be on my favorite team, the New York Yankees. Surprisingly, he turned in a strong season by his standards, but regression feels long overdue. That pitcher is Carlos Rodon.
The 32-year-old left-hander finished the year with a 3.09 ERA, a number that looks sharp compared to his past production. Yet, history suggests it is unlikely to hold in October. This will be Rodon's fourth postseason appearance and his second with the Yankees. His career playoff ERA sits at an inflated 6.64 across 20.1 innings. During the Yankees' 2024 run to the World Series, he posted a 5.60 ERA.
Fade Rodon
His first test this October will be the Boston Red Sox. In three starts against them this season, Rodon put up a 5.74 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Boston tagged him for 11 runs on 11 hits in those outings while drawing 10 walks. The walks are especially concerning. Free passes shorten outings, and fewer innings raise the likelihood his ERA trends above that 3.09 mark. Going back to 2024, Rodon has made six appearances against Boston with a 5.29 ERA, allowing 19 earned runs and issuing 16 walks.
Yes, this is me fading my own team when Rodon is on the mound, but I have never trusted him and still believe regression is overdue. His last five starts produced a strong 2.61 ERA, but those came against weak or fading lineups-Houston, Detroit, Minnesota, Baltimore, and Chicago-all clubs either playing for nothing or sputtering down the stretch. The Red Sox are a different story. They have hit him consistently, they are entering October hot, and I expect them to light him up early in this postseason.
At the end of the day, this play comes down to history repeating itself. Carlos Rodon has never been a reliable postseason arm, and his numbers against Boston leave little room for optimism. The Red Sox offense is disciplined enough to take walks, make him work, and force him into mistakes. If his leash is short, the odds of him keeping that ERA under control shrink even more. Fading him may feel harsh as a Yankees fan, but this is about trusting the data. Boston has his number, and I expect that trend to continue this October.
Best Bet: Carlos Rodon Over 3.09 ERA in Postseason (-110) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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