MLB Picks and Predictions for July 30, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Thu Jul 30, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We're inching closer to the end of the workweek, and Thursday's MLB card gives us a nice mix of afternoon and evening baseball. There are 10 games on tap, and two totals are standing out to me — one under and one over. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for July 30 and see if we can find a couple of winners.
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Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees MLB Picks
We'll start in the afternoon as the Yankees visit the White Sox at Rate Field for a 2:10 PM ET matchup. Ryan Weathers is set to take the bump for New York against Sean Burke for Chicago.
Yankees vs. White Sox Pitching Matchup
- New York Yankees: LHP Ryan Weathers (4–7, 4.25 ERA, 122 SO)
- Chicago White Sox: RHP Sean Burke (7–5, 3.19 ERA, 130 SO)
Best Bet: Yankees/White Sox Under 8 Runs (+100) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
I like the under 8 runs at plus money. As it stands, this sets up really well for a bit of a snoozer.
Weathers has been a bit erratic this season, but when he's cooking, he can really miss bats. The White Sox lineup has plenty of lefty bats with big power rates, but they simply aren't as equipped to take on southpaw pitching.
In the month of July, Chicago ranks dead last in MLB in weighted runs created plus against lefties, hitting just .230 against southpaws with the second‑worst ISO in baseball. Weathers has given up his fair share of taters, but the splits are very clear. This is not the profile of an offense that's been good against left‑handed pitching.
Meanwhile, Sean Burke has been one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball this year. Burke has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven appearances. This version of the Yankees is scrappy, but not exactly healthy. Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton are all out.
In July, New York sits just 19th in MLB in wRC+ against right‑handed pitching and is striking out at the highest clip in the league.
All signs point toward offensive inconsistency on both sides. Weathers has a great matchup against a lefty‑weak lineup, Burke has been nails for a month, and the Yankees are banged‑up and whiff‑happy. I feel even better about an 8.5, but under 8 at +100 is the icing on the cake here. I think there's real value on this total.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals MLB Picks
Now, for an evening battle as the Nationals visit the Braves at Truist Park for a 7:15 PM ET first pitch. Jake Irvin is scheduled to take the mound for Washington against Grant Holmes for Atlanta.
Nationals vs. Braves Pitching Matchup
- Washington Nationals: RHP Jake Irvin (2–4, 5.23 ERA, 58 SO)
- Atlanta Braves: RHP Grant Holmes (6–4, 3.79 ERA, 83 SO)
Best Bet: Nationals/Braves Over 9.5 Runs (−105) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
Between Jake Irvin and Zach Littell, the Nationals might have two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball — and this hasn't been a one‑year blip. Irvin's 5.23 ERA tells the story, and the expected ERA is right in line, which means there's no "unlucky" safety net.
According to Baseball Savant, Irvin sits in the basement in the barrel‑rate and hard‑hit‑rate departments, and his chase rate is also near the bottom of the league. His whiff rate is only around league average.
He's striking out about a quarter of the hitters he's faced, but the underlying metrics don't support anything sustainable. The bigger concern is the long ball. Across his sample last season, Irvin surrendered a whopping 38 home runs, and 26 of those were to left‑handed hitters. If there's one thing Atlanta has, it's lefties who can hurt you — Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and company are more than capable of doing massive damage.
On the other side, Grant Holmes' underlying metrics don't exactly wow me either. He owns a solid 3.79 ERA, but the expected ERA is closer to the mid‑4s. He does have above‑average chase and whiff rates, which is nice, but given that gap between ERA and xERA, he feels like a regression candidate more than a long-term good pitcher.
The Nationals lineup has quietly been a pleasant surprise. James Wood might be the best hitter in baseball right now, CJ Abrams is pushing the 30‑home‑run mark, and they've generally become a pesky group of hitters who can put up crooked numbers. Between Irvin's continued struggles and Holmes' profile hinting at regression, it's hard to see this game staying under 9.5.
Good luck on Thursday. Let's cash a couple of winners.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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