MLB Home Run Best Bets | March 31, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Mon Mar 31, 2025, 12:19 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Monday's Home Run Best Bets: The long ball is coming, and we have two prime spots to attack. One hitter is overdue, while the other faces a pitcher who struggles against elite bats. Let's break down the best spots to cash in on a home run today.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Sunday's Best Bet Write Up: 1-1 (-0.19 Units)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Rangers vs Reds Best Bet
Is today the day Joc Pederson records his first home run of the season?
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Joc Pederson ranks as the fifth-highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com's ratings and holds the seventh-highest home run percentage trend on today's slate. The Rangers designated hitter goes deep 25.4% of the time when elite, based on a 63-game sample size. His hit prop is set around -165, and when elite, he records at least one hit 61.9% of the time.
He faces Reds starter Brady Singer, who allows the third-most hard contact on today's slate. The 28-year-old right-hander holds a career ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.33.
With just one hit through the first four games of the season, Pederson has a prime matchup and a great opportunity to find success against Singer. His last home run came back on September 21st against the Brewers—he has to be hungry for a long ball.
Best Bet: Joc Pederson Home Run (+425)
Nationals vs Blue Jays Best Bet
Will Vlad Junior show up today and show he is worth every penny?
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On Michael Soroka Day, we fade!
One of my favorite pitchers to target, Soroka carries a career 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Last season, he posted a 4.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with the White Sox.
Elite-rated hitters take Soroka deep 20% of the time and record a hit 66% of the time. The highest-rated hitter in this matchup is a man out to prove he is worth every dollar he is asking for—Mr. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero to record a hit today is priced around -290, but you will need to pair it with someone else—maybe a certain slugger from Texas wink wink. When rated elite, Guerrero records a hit 74.14% of the time over a 58-game sample. His home run trends may not be the flashiest, but at nearly 5/1 odds, he is well worth a shot to launch his first of the season.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+475)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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