MLB AL MVP Award: Cal Raleigh Is Not Worth It | June 30, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Mon Jun 30, 2025, 10:22 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
AL MVP: Everyone is suddenly jumping on the Cal Raleigh MVP train—but the timing could not be worse. The value is long gone, and the numbers do not lie. Before you chase steam, read this.
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Updated AL MVP Award Odds
Is it worth taking a shot on the Tigers' star lefty to win AL MVP?
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world. BetOnline offers a wide variety of markets paired with the most competitive lines available, making them the go-to site to place your bets. Sign up today with Promo Code BNEWS and get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000, as well as $10 instantly in your account.
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- Aaron Judge -1000
- Cal Raleigh +475
- Jeremy Pena +8000
- Bobby Witt Jr. +10000
- Jose Ramirez +12500
- Tarik Skubal +12500
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Do Not Bet On Cal Raleigh
I have seen it all weekend on social media and betting shows—people suggesting to take Cal Raleigh to win the AL MVP at +475. If you are just now deciding it is a good time to invest in the Mariners' star catcher, you missed your window.
What do I mean?
This exact prop was 20/1 on June 20, right before Raleigh went on a monster tear at Wrigley against the Cubs. He broke the record for most home runs by a catcher before the All-Star break—and for a switch hitter. He is now +475 to win AL MVP, which he most likely will not win. He does not hit for average. The value is gone. Do not listen to anyone telling you to take a prop that has plummeted like this in just two weeks.
He is also getting treated like Barry Bonds. Since his last home run on June 23, Raleigh has walked eight times in six games. During that span, he has only three hits—one for extra bases. If this is the kind of treatment he is going to get moving forward, those odds are not worth it. He is on a team where he is the only consistent threat to elevate the ball. Seattle ranks ninth in ground ball rate over the last 30 days. Raleigh is the lone outlier in that lineup.
So Where Is the Value?
It is hard to say. You would have to consider the health of Aaron Judge when betting on anyone else to win the AL MVP. If you want a long shot, I kind of like Tarik Skubal. His velocity has been down, but after a dominant Sunday Night showing in primetime, there could be value in grabbing the AL Cy Young favorite to also win MVP. Maybe worth some Pop-Tart money.
If you truly believe in Raleigh, go for it. Just remember—he was 20/1 two weeks ago, and he was already on this pace. Do not let one hot weekend cloud your judgment.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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