Mets vs. Orioles: Juan Soto Prop Predictions | July 9, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Wed Jul 09, 2025, 3:00 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Mets vs. Orioles: Juan Soto is heating up at the plate and draws one of the juiciest matchups on the entire slate tonight. With ideal splits, elite road metrics, and a vulnerable arm on the mound, all signs point toward another big performance. If the weather holds, I want to be backing Soto in every way possible.
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Last Month: 60-139 (-19.84u)
Last Week: 6-26 (-9.39u)
I am colder than your father's beer fridge. Full fade.
Mets vs. Orioles Best Bets – July 9
Will Juan Soto prove he should have been an All-Star tonight?
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Coming off a three-hit game last night against the Orioles, Juan Soto is primed for another productive evening. He enters tonight with the third-highest average hitter matchup rating on Batters-Box. In 60 elite-rated road matchups, Soto has produced the following:
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1+ hit: 61%
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2+ hits: 31%
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Home run: 26%
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2+ bases: 43%
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2+ HRR: 60%
Overall, the Mets slugger has cleared this prop in six of his last 10 elite-rated matchups.
Tonight, he faces Orioles 35-year-old rookie Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box this season. On top of that, Sugano grades poorly in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He is allowing nearly 40% hard contact.
Sugano's Struggles
Over his last four starts, Sugano has a 9.50 ERA and is giving up a .381 opponent batting average. Left-handed hitters are batting .268 with a .489 SLG and .796 OPS against him this season. He throws 42% of his pitches below league average. His best pitch, the splitter, is used only 25% of the time. Soto has crushed splitters this season—posting a +5 run value, .313 BA, 1.039 OPS, 204 wRC+, and a 57% hard-hit rate across a 103-pitch sample.
There is expected rainfall this evening, but RotoGrinders forecasts it to clear by first pitch. "Heavy rain clears around first pitch, light lingering rain sticks around until maybe 10?" They noted, "Most of this rain I think they would be able to play through if they were already playing and it moved in, but it is less common to see teams actually start in the light rain. Some PPD risk here."
I can live with that. The wind is slightly blowing out. If they play this game, I want to be all over Soto against Sugano.
Best Bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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