Heading to Denver, where the Rockies welcome the Miami Marlins for a three-game set. Both clubs are long out of playoff contention and are essentially playing for pride. Still, the Rockies have a little extra motivation, as two more wins would keep them from tying the 2024 White Sox for the worst record in MLB history.
My focus is on the Rockies offense tonight, specifically catcher Hunter Goodman to go over 1.5 bases. The 25-year-old has been slumping with only three hits in his last 19 plate appearances, but Coors Field has been his safe haven. At home this season, Goodman owns a .305 average, .527 slugging, and .850 OPS.
Goodman's Trends
Goodman grades as Great in Batters-Box's current season ratings, and the trends back it up. In 16 games with a Great rating, he records a hit 75% of the time, two or more hits 43%, clears this bases prop 56%, and even goes deep 31%. He has also hit this prop in six of his last ten Great-rated games.
Perez vs. Goodman
On the mound for Miami is right-hander Eury Perez, who has unraveled in recent starts. Over his last three outings, Perez carries a 13.06 ERA and 2.03 WHIP, allowing a .385 xBA, .803 xSLG, and .416 xwOBA. Right-handed hitters, in particular, have been punishing him, batting .342 with nearly 50% hard contact in that stretch.
Perez leans heavily on his fastball, throwing it more than half the time. While it is his best pitch, it still ranks below league average. Goodman has handled fastballs well this season, posting a .244 average, .795 OPS, and 125 wRC+ against the pitch.
Given Goodman's strong splits at Coors Field and Perez's recent struggles, this sets up as an ideal bounce-back spot for the young catcher. The numbers point to value on Goodman to clear his total bases prop, especially with his consistent production in favorable matchups and Perez's inability to limit hard contact. With Colorado eager to avoid making the wrong kind of history and Goodman due for a surge, this feels like a prime opportunity for him to step up and deliver at the plate tonight.
I will be sprinkling Goodman to go deep at nearly 4-to-1 for a little extra sweat.
