Marlins vs. Brewers (Sept. 30): Will Milwaukee make light work of Miami in must-see mound matchup?

Eddie Griffin

It is typically considered poor etiquette to throw away a gift someone gave you, but that is exactly what the Milwaukee Brewers did last night in the opener of their series with the Miami Marlins.

After the Cubs finished off their sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Brewers had a chance to move ahead of the Phillies for the final NL wild-card spot.

But after holding the Marlins scoreless for 7.2 innings, Freddy Peralta gave up a grand slam to former teammate Avisail Garcia, flipping a Milwaukee’s 2-0 lead into a 4-2 lead for Miami, who would close out the win by that scoreline.

So, instead of entering today in the driver’s seat, the Brewers remain a half-game behind the Phillies, who begin a four-game series with the Washington Nationals this afternoon.

After failing to finish the win last night, Milwaukee’s margin for error has taken a big hit, and a win is a must in tonight’s mound matchup between last year’s NL Cy Young winner, Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, and this year’s likely NL Cy Young winner, Miami’s Sandy Alcantara.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Miami Marlins (65-91, 33-45 away, 4th in the NL East) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (83-73, 43-32 home, 2nd in the NL West)
  • Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
  • Date: Friday, September 30, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time (7:10 p.m. local time)

Marlins vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup

  • Miami: RHP Sandy Alcantara (2022: 31 starts, 14-8, 2.32 ERA)
  • Milwaukee: RHP Corbin Burnes (2022: 31 starts, 11-8, 3.11 ERA)

Marlins vs. Brewers Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Moneyline

  • Miami Marlins +158
  • Milwaukee Brewers -188

Over/Under

  • Over 6 (-105)
  • Under 6 (-114)

Run Line

  • Miami Marlins +1.5 (-154)
  • Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+128)

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Betting Picks

Marlins vs. Brewers Prediction: Brewers to win

Marlins vs. Brewers Pick: Brewers -1.5 (Best Value: +135 at Caesars Sportsbook) & Brewers team total over 3.5 runs (Best Value: +135 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Alcantara’s longtime spot as the NL Cy Young favorite looked a bit tenuous a few weeks ago, as Max Fried, Zac Gallen, and Julio Urias all seemed to be closing in.

Well, any doubt seems to have just about dissipated, because Alcantara has regained a firm grip on the award.

Last Three Starts for Sandy Alcantara

  • vs. Philadelphia (9/13): 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R (2 ER), BB, 4 K
  • at Washington (9/18): 9 IP, 7 H, R (ER), BB, 7 K
  • vs. Washington (9/24): 8 IP, 3 H, R (ER), BB, 11 K

This season, Alcantara has a 3.16 ERA and a .239 OBA on the road (1.64 ERA and .191 OBA at home).

The Brewers perform better offensively at home (.237 BA and 4.59 runs per game) than on the road (.234 BA and 4.15 runs per game), and they are much, much better vs. RHP (.241) than LHP (.220) and in games started by RHP (.243 and 4.87 runs per game in 105 games) than in games started by LHP (.222 and 3.84 runs per game in 51 games).

So, Milwaukee may be able to get to him a little bit tonight at home. That bodes well for the Brewers, provided Burnes can build off of his last start and pitch well against the Marlins.

Burnes hasn’t had more than six consecutive quality starts this season, and he has been especially up and down over the last couple of months.

But after allowing five runs in 5.2 innings in a loss to the Mets 11 days ago, Burnes pitched very well against the Reds last Saturday. In Milwaukee’s 10-2 win, he allowed two runs, four hits, and three walks and struck out eight in 6.1 innings.

Burnes has a higher ERA at home (3.38) than on the road (2.83) and in night games (3.34) than in day games (2.71).

But he will be facing the second-worst offense in the league (3.6 runs per game), with the Marlins one of just five teams that has scored fewer than 600 runs this season.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.