Another day, another first five team total over. Today, it is the Los Angeles Angels at 2.5, priced at $1.05. The Angels have shockingly been one of the better offenses in baseball over the past few weeks. They rank eighth in offense over the last 30 days and third over the last 14. On top of that, they are the number one offense against right-handed pitching and also the top-rated home offense, all according to FanGraphs.
This season, the Angels are averaging 2.27 runs in the first five innings at home. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been giving up 2.72 runs in the same span on the road.
Today, the Angels enter with the highest-rated offense on Batters-Box. Their lineup features six elite-rated hitters, five with strikeout rates above league average, and none rated poorly or above the league average ground ball rate.
Evans vs. Los Angeles
They face Seattle right-hander Logan Evans, who owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box's current season board. His matchup metrics—wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball rate—are all poorly rated. He is allowing 42% hard contact this season, and 61% of his pitch mix is graded below league average. On the road, he has been brutal: a 5.06 ERA and a .345 opponent batting average.
In five road starts, Evans has allowed nearly eight hits and four runs per outing. In his last three starts, he has surrendered 18 hits and eight earned runs, with opponents hitting .300. He has been a mess.
Which is why I am all over the Angels tonight. I will gladly lean into Evans' road struggles.
Best Bet: Angels First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-105) odds via BetOnline
