With the season winding down and just a months worth of games left, the race for the AL East continues to heat up as the days go bye. Three teams stand alone at a chance at taking the division and I think there are a couple great looks at who to attack with some significant value and with there being enough time for teams to go on hot streaks and teams to go into some cold streaks in the final weeks of the season.
As of right now the Toronto Blue Jays are three games ahead of the New York Yankees, while the Boston Red Sox hot one their tails being only 3.5 games back of the division. All three of these teams have very different paths in the coming weeks in terms of remaining strength in schedule.
The Red Sox have the 8th toughest remaining schedule to close out the season. Having three games against the Tigers, Blue Jays, Yankees and Guardians being their toughest remaining opponents. They do have great odds to take the East, but even their easiest remaining opponents are still very competitive. Having six games against the Athletics, three against the Rays and three against the Diamondbacks. All three of those teams still play very competitive baseball and I would not count any of those three teams out trying to play upset to close out the season.
Same goes for, the Blue Jays, who have the 11th toughest, while having three games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Royals and Reds. They still have seven games against the Rays and three against the Orioles. I am expecting them to cool off in the coming weeks.
Finally, the Yankees have the 10th easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball. However, they do have three games against the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers and Astros. They still get to take on the White Sox three more times after just taking two of three on the Southside. Seven games against the Orioles and finally three games against the Twins.
Getting Hot at the Right Time
I think the best look price wise is the New York Yankees, I took them early last week at almost 5/1, but I still love the current price tag. They have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last few weeks. According to Handigraphs, the Yankees over the last two weeks own the third highest wRC+, fourth highest wOBA, second best OPS, while being number one in ISO, walk rate and barrel rate. They have been in another zone since and they are peaking at the right time, end of August rolling into the last month of the season. Now is the time.
The Yankees and Red Sox both are 7-3 in their last ten games, while the Blue Jays are 5-5. I know I said I am not the biggest fan of the Red Sox taking the East, but that price for them is insane. They are still a scrappy team with a lot of fight left to give in the final weeks of the season.
If you have no action in this market and you are now looking to get involved. Having a ticket on two of the top three teams fighting for first place in their division is a great look. Especially, when you are getting over 6/1 for a team a hair back of the Yankees and 3.5 from first. Again, tough remaining schedule, but one hell of a price tag to pass up on.
The AL East is setting up for one of the best finishes in baseball, and every series over the next month will carry weight. I will be riding with the Yankees to come out on top in the division, as their recent form and favorable schedule give them the edge. While I do think the Red Sox present a strong value look at their current price, I will be sticking with my favorite team for a little bias sweat.
LEAN: Red Sox to Win AL East (+650)
