Little afternoon baseball in the desert, where the Diamondbacks host the Giants. We are not looking at any side or total in this matchup, we want long balls and bases. Who is going to lead us to the promised land of money? Surprisingly, the ice cold Rafael Devers is my lean in this ball game.
Despite the former Red Sox star going just 3-for-28 in his last eight games, I believe he is due for an explosive afternoon at the plate. He faces Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who always feels like he is on the verge of a letdown outing. The Giants slugger matches up very well against the young arm, as he is crushing over 60% of Pfaadt's pitch mix. Even more telling, only 8% of Pfaadt's offerings are above league average, which means 92% of his arsenal grades negatively.
Lefties vs. Pfaadt
To make matters worse, the right hander has struggled heavily against left handed bats. The last 60 lefties he has faced own a .429 xBA, .599 xSLG, and .325 xwOBA. Zoom in further, and the last 30 lefties are making 43% hard contact with a 14% barrel rate, while posting a .472 xBA, .713 xSLG, and .373 xwOBA.
Those numbers pushed me to the sportsbook to grab Devers to hit a home run at nearly five-to-one. First, that is a misprice. Second, I want to back a guy who has not homered since September 5. Thirdly, he is hitting a home run at a 28% clip when elite, per Batters-Box's current season hitter ratings.
Elite Trends
His total bases are also a strong lean for a safer route. According to Batters-Box, in 185 elite ratings dating back three years, Devers has gone over two bases 47% of the time. In 50 this season, he is going over them 50% of the time. These are strong trends I want to ride this afternoon. If you want a watered-down approach, in those same 185 elite ratings Devers records a hit 68% of the time. That is a great leg for any parlay.
This matchup sets up perfectly for Rafael Devers to break out of his slump in a big way. The numbers scream value, the matchup tilts heavily in his favor, and the market gave us a generous misprice on his home run prop.
Whether you want to take the swing for power or play it safer with total bases, Devers offers multiple ways to cash this afternoon in Arizona. The lefty slugger is overdue for a statement at the plate, and Pfaadt's profile suggests he is the perfect pitcher to provide it. I am riding with Devers to deliver.
Best Bet: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline
