We head over to Cincinnati, where our eyes are all over Dodgers catcher Will Smith, who draws a strong matchup against Reds ground ball pitcher Nick Lodolo. Smith holds a Great rating on Batters-Box's hitter ratings today and brings in some impressive trends. First, he has gone over this prop in six of his last ten games with a Great rating. Second, in 61 Great-rated appearances, he has recorded a hit 72% of the time and cleared this prop 48% of the time.
Against left-handed pitchers this season, the 30-year-old catcher has been playing solid ball. On the road versus southpaws, he owns a .286 batting average, .936 OPS, and 164 wRC+.
Smith vs. Lodolo
As mentioned, Lodolo is a strong ground ball pitcher, holding a ground ball percentage above 40% over the last three seasons. Fortunately, Smith's ground ball rate on the road against left-handers is at its lowest this season, just barely above 20%. Lodolo has also struggled at home, posting a 4.17 ERA and .265 opponent batting average. He is allowing 5.7 hits and 2.6 runs per home start.
Lodolo's most dangerous weapon is his changeup, which he throws 22% of the time and ranks well above league average, per FanGraphs. Smith, however, is batting .500 against the pitch with a 1.357 OPS and 277 wRC+. That is based on a 95-pitch sample.
With how low Smith's ground ball rate has been on the road, this is a strong spot to back him against a pitcher who has allowed a 42.9% hard-hit rate over his last three home starts. Take the catcher to bounce back after a hitless Sunday.
Best Bet: Will Smith Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline
