With the series heading back to Toronto and the Blue Jays holding a 3–2 lead, it feels almost inevitable that they will clinch their first World Series title in over 30 years. They have simply outplayed the Dodgers in every way since this series began. That 18-inning heartbreaker on Monday did not even faze this "never say die" team. If anything, it seems to have fueled them. They knew they were strong enough to bounce back and deliver less than 24 hours later in Game 4.
Leading the charge for Toronto, and the current favorite for World Series MVP, is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been nothing short of spectacular. Through five games, the Blue Jays first baseman is hitting .364 with eight hits, two home runs, and three RBIs. I do not see a scenario where the Dodgers do not walk him at least once tonight. He is the most dangerous bat in that lineup, and they would be foolish to give him something to hit. So let us break down how to bet this for the best value.
How to Attack the Walk Prop
If you prefer to sit back and enjoy the game rather than mess with live betting, take the over on Guerrero Jr.'s walks at -120. I usually do not like paying juice for a walk prop, but given how dominant he has been, it is justified value. Now, for those who want to play the live angle, target his first plate appearance for a walk or hit-by-pitch, typically priced around +400 or better. If he walks, perfect. You cash early and move on.
If the Dodgers pitch to him and he gets a hit, circle back for his next at-bat and take the walk/HBP prop again, then live bet over 0.5 walks, it should be plus money by then. Why both? Some sportsbooks do not count intentional walks on "next at-bat result" props, but they do for the regular walk prop. Plus, after his first trip to the plate, that -120 line should flip to plus odds.
I know that is a lot of detail, but it is worth the effort. Guerrero Jr. has drawn at least one walk in four of the five games this series, including two multi-walk performances. The Dodgers clearly do not want to challenge him, and in an elimination game, that trend should continue.
