No need to jump the gun and assume we are riding with the clear-cut NL MVP, Shohei Ohtani. That is not where we are headed this evening. We are all over Dodgers catcher Will Smith, a man who finds himself in one of the most delectable matchups on tonight's slate.
The 30-year-old backstop enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season ratings. In 12 elite-rated games this season, he has recorded two hits 41% of the time, gone over this prop 58% of the time, and cleared 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in 58% of those contests. The sample size is small, but the trend is still notable.
Smith vs. Hendricks
Lucky for us, Smith draws the third-worst rated starter in Kyle Hendricks, who carries poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage. This season, the aged veteran has been letting right-handed hitters feast. In the last 60 righties he has faced, they have posted a .315 xBA, .626 xSLG, and .345 xwOBA.
Hendricks leans heavily on changeups and sinkers, which make up 76% of his pitches. Smith is demolishing everything in Hendricks' arsenal, especially his main two, where he owns a batting average of .348 or better, an OPS of .776 or better, and a wRC+ of 125 or better.
Despite batting only .133 over the last seven days, Smith has crushed right-handed pitching all season, carrying a .327 average, .580 slugging percentage, and .955 OPS. At home, Hendricks is allowing right-handed hitters to bat .336 with a .589 slugging percentage and a .391 wOBA.
Getting plus money in this spot feels like a gift. This is by far my favorite play of the day.
Best Bet: Will Smith Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline
