Dodgers vs. Giants: Mispriced Player Props | July 11, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Fri Jul 11, 2025, 4:30 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Dodgers vs. Giants: Shohei Ohtani steps into a perfect bounce-back spot tonight in San Francisco. The matchup, the metrics, the misprice—it all lines up. One of the most dangerous hitters in baseball is facing a vulnerable arm, and I am all over it.
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Last Month: 57-140 (-24.7u)
Last Week: 9-27 (-6.37u)
Thursday was abysmal. FULL FADE!
Dodgers vs. Giants Best Bets – July 11
After a hitless Wednesday night, will Shohei Ohtani bounce back in the Bay?
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One of the more mispriced props on the board today is Shohei Ohtani's home run line, listed at 4/1 on some books. While I am giving out his total bases prop here—which is also a strong number—that home run price deserves a serious look. Yes, he is facing Giants ace Logan Webb, but I would argue Shohei is simply on another level. Let us get into it.
Ohtani is coming off a hitless night on Wednesday and is due for a bounce back against the longtime rival Giants. He has played very well on the road this season, posting a .276 average, .626 slugging percentage, and a 1.018 OPS. In today's matchup, he owns the highest offensive rating on either side, according to Batters-Box.
When Ohtani carries an elite rating on the road, he has delivered:
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76% hit rate
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32% multi-hit rate
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58% total bases hit rate
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32% home run rate
That comes from a 78-game elite road rating sample size.
Ohtani vs. Webb
Webb has had a strong season, but he has not been sharp against left-handed hitters, who are batting .272 with a .408 SLG and .718 OPS against him. His most-used pitch is the sinker, but Ohtani has handled that well, batting .286 with a .923 OPS and 167 wRC+ against it. On top of that, 35% of Webb's arsenal—including his slider and cutter—is graded below league average.
Webb throws his slider nearly 30% of the time, so let us focus on that. Ohtani is the No. 1-hitter on the Dodgers against the slider, owning a +12 run value, .377 average, .868 slugging, and a 60% hard-hit rate against the pitch.
This is simply a premium matchup for Ohtani. I believe this home run line is a massive misprice. Make sure to sprinkle there—the value is ridiculous. No matter who is on the mound, when is the last time you saw a 4/1 number next to Shohei Ohtani's name?
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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