Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Player Prop Predictions | July 10, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Thu Jul 10, 2025, 4:55 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Ketel Marte got back on track last night with a double, and I am going right back to the well with him today. This matchup is a full go across the board, with every key indicator pointing in his favor.
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Last Month: 59-138 (-21.21u)
Last Week: 8-23 (-5.87u)
I am colder than your father's beer fridge. Full fade.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Best Bets – July 10
Will there be Marte magic in San Diego this evening?
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This is easily my favorite look on today's slate: Ketel Marte to go over his bases prop, priced at even money. It feels like a steal. It feels too good to pass up, because everything about this matchup is a 100% go.
After going 1-for-4 with a double—following two straight games without a hit—Marte is set up for another strong outing against Padres starter Randy Vasquez, who holds the third-worst pitcher rating on the day, per Batters-Box. The 26-year-old right-hander also owns a poorly rated matchup across the board: wOBA, ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage. That works in our favor—we want Marte elevating the baseball.
Vasquez has a very below-average pitch mix, with nearly 70% of his pitches graded below league average. His best offering is a sinker, which he throws 18% of the time. Marte owns a .259 average, .714 OPS, and 113 wRC+ against sinkers. While he holds a -2 run value on the pitch, he also carries a .319 expected batting average. He crushes the rest of Vasquez's arsenal, so if those are his "worst" numbers against Vasquez's "best," I will take it.
Marte holds the highest rating in this matchup. In just 69 elite-rated matchups on Batters-Box, he has recorded:
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72% 1+ Hit
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36% 2+ Hits
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50% 2+ Bases
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63% 2+ HRR
With all of that said, we are backing a guy who loves hitting on the road. He owns a .328 average, .690 slugging percentage, and 1.112 OPS away from home. He will be facing a pitcher who has allowed left-handed hitters to bat nearly .300 against him over his career. Love the price. Love the matchup even more.
Best Bet: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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