Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Player Prop Predictions | July 7, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Mon Jul 07, 2025, 5:28 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Gavin Sheets has quietly turned into a reliable bat for the Padres, and tonight sets up beautifully for him to shine. He draws a vulnerable matchup against Zac Gallen, whose metrics against lefties and pitch arsenal both work in Sheets' favor. With elite splits and power upside, this is the perfect time to buy in.
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Last Month: 58-139 (-22.2u)
Last Week: 7-22 (-6.25u)
The cold streak continues. I strongly suggest either taking any hitter I give out just to record a hit and pairing it with someone else for plus money—or fully fading the pick altogether.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Best Bets – July 7
Finally backing Gavin Sheets—can he deliver for us tonight in a spot that lines up just right?
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I have been waiting for the right day to back Padres outfielder Gavin Sheets, and tonight feels like that moment. The former White Sox has enjoyed a breakout season in San Diego, batting .264 with a .776 OPS and 13 home runs. He looks like a perfect fit in this lineup.
Sheets faces Arizona right-hander Zac Gallen tonight. Gallen currently holds the third-worst rating on Batters-Box this season. He ranks poorly in several key categories, including wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, and strikeout percentage. His pitch mix leans heavily on fastballs (48%) and changeups (14%), making up 62% of his arsenal. The rest—primarily his knuckle curve—is graded below league average.
Sheets has crushed fastballs all season, posting a +6 run value, a .302 batting average, a .946 OPS, and a 171 wRC+. While changeups have not been his strongest pitch, he still ranks among the top three Padres hitters against it, with a +1 run value, .246 xBA, .503 xSLG, and a 46.7% hard-hit rate.
Gallen throws his knuckle curve 24% of the time, and Sheets owns a .286 batting average, .652 OPS, and 96 wRC+ against the pitch over his career.
In 16 elite-rated matchups this season, Sheets has recorded at least one hit 75% of the time, two hits 37% of the time, gone over his hits-runs-RBIs prop 56%, and has homered in 31% of those games. He has gone over his HRR prop in six of his last 10 elite-rated spots.
With Gallen struggling far more against left-handed hitters than right-handed ones, this feels like a great opportunity for Sheets to produce early and often at the plate.
Best Bet: Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+100) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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