A 14-game slate is on tap for this Friday night in baseball, and that means we have a ton of options. The different sites have really different slates today with different pitching prices that drastically change the things I want to attack.
Gerrit Cole is the highest projected pitcher on the slate from a raw points perspective. However, I expect to get zero Cole on this slate because of his price tag. Cole is in a fantastic spot, but I think there are pitchers that can rival him at a much cheaper price tag. Cole is a better price on FanDuel, but I will still probably avoid him there.
The chalk pitcher on DK should be Jacob deGrom tonight. deGrom is $2,800 cheaper than Cole, which is just WAY too much. deGrom is cheaper than Lance Lynn. The Rockies are a good lineup on paper, but they really struggle away from Coors Field. Going into the season, the argument about the best pitcher in baseball started with Sale and deGrom. Sale struck out 17 Rockies in seven innings a few weeks ago, which gives you a look into how much upside deGrom has in this spot.
The other pitcher that I like at the top end is Domingo German, who possesses elite stuff against an average Indians lineup. On DraftKings, deGrom is cheaper and the better pitcher. If you want to pivot to German for almost zero ownership, I think that he has the upside to crush any spot. Where I want German is on FanDuel, where he is $8,100. That is behind guys like Zach Eflin and Andrew Heaney. I love German as a massive discount on FanDuel. German is the lowest I want to go on this slate on FanDuel.
The mid-to-low tier on this slate is not great. I play Marcus Stroman a lot, but he feels too close to deGrom and the studs to get into my lineup a lot. Brandon Woodruff is talented, but he just got smoked by the Pirates in his last start. You can go there and bank on the rebound, but it doesn’t feel good. If Michael Pineda pitches for the Twins tonight, I can get on board with it, but he has been bad this season. Pineda has always underperformed his stuff, but the stuff has been worse this season.
Okay, so I don’t like doing this, but Homer Bailey is my favorite SP2 on DK. Bailey isn’t a good pitcher, but he’s not the worst pitcher out there, and he gets a good K-matchup with the White Sox. Just two games ago, Bailey put up just over 15 DK points in Chicago. Now he gets a park upgrade in the same matchup at $4,500. Bailey should be $5,800, and that is why I am playing him. He does have swing and miss stuff. He isn’t going to always get killed like some pitchers down here. Bailey has 20-point upside, and he is cheaper than Brandon Lowe and the same price as Kurt Suzuki.
The Brewers stack is the best stack on the slate without a doubt. I think that they will not be owned this way, and I plan on loading up on Milwaukee here. Rookie Davis has struck out 6.5 guys per 9 in AAA this season with an xFIP of 5.58. His HR/FB% isn’t unlucky. His LOB% isn’t unlucky. Davis’s performance in Triple-A ball should’ve gotten him sent down, and I don’t think that is even debatable.
The Nationals stack can be expensive if you want to force the top hitters in, but I love them vs. Nick Margevicius. Margevicius is another pitcher that would fit in more at Double-A ball than he does in the majors, and I expect him to not last too long up here.
The Astros are an offense that depends on the ownership. This team is pretty banged up, and Ynoa is not a horrible pitcher, but that means that they are cheaper than we are used to in a spot like this. I like the Astros here vs. a bad bullpen if they get Ynoa out of the game quickly.