Brewers vs. Cardinals (August 14): Will Mikolas continue his home hot streak to see off Milwaukee?
With almost 50 games left, many twists and turns are likely still ahead in the National League Central race between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals.
So, the outcome of today’s matchup in St. Louis will likely be only so relevant to the final outcome of their tussle for the division title.
But it is still an important game, nonetheless. With a win, the Brewers will return home for a big four-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a half-game lead atop the division. But if the Cardinals win, they will be up by a game and a half.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Information and Betting Odds
- Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (61-51, 32-29 away, 2nd in the NL Central) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (62-51, 36-21 home, 1st in the NL Central)
- Venue & Location: Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)
- Date: Sunday, August 14, 2022
- Game Time: 2:15 p.m. Eastern Time (1:15 p.m. local time)
Brewers vs. Cardinals Pitching Matchup
- Milwaukee Brewers: Aaron Ashby (2022: 21 appearances – 15 starts, 2-10, 4.32 ERA)
- St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (2022: 23 starts, 8-9, 3.50 ERA)
Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds
- Milwaukee Brewers +120
- St. Louis Cardinals -142
- Over 8 (-118)
- Under 8 (-104)
- Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-172)
- St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+142)
Expect Mikolas to Bounce Back from Denver Disaster
When last we saw Miles Mikolas on the mound, he allowed 10 runs and 14 hits in 2.2 innings against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.
He isn’t the first pitcher to have a rough game at Coors Field, and he won’t be the last, but those are numbers you will not see very often at this level.
But it’s highly unlikely that we will not see him give up even half of that against the Brewers, based on how he has pitched at home this season.
In 11 home starts, Mikolas is 4-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Of his 15 quality starts this season, nine have come at Busch Stadium, including five in a row starting with his near no-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 14. In that stretch, he is 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA.
On the other side, the numbers aren’t so positive. Ashby has 103 strikeouts in 85.1 innings and is averaging 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. But he is one of only 11 pitchers with double-digit losses, and his 1.48 WHIP is also pretty unsightly.
On the road, Ashby is 1-7 with a 4.72 ERA, a .281 OBA, and a 1.66 WHIP in 14 appearances, 10 of which are starts.
He has had some decent starts, and he allowed two runs, five hits, and one walk and struck out nine against the Rockies on July 25. So, it’s certainly not all bad, and there is certainly a lot of potential there. Otherwise, he wouldn’t remain in a prominent role for a team trying to win a division.
But when he is getting sporadic run support and the guy on the other side has been pretty darn good at home, there isn’t a lot to be confident about on Milwaukee’s side.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Picks
Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals to win
Brewers vs. Cardinals Picks: Cardinals ML (Best Value: -140 at BetMGM)
Given Ashby’s struggles on the road and the Lizard King’s success at home, the Cardinals might be getting less love from the oddsmakers than they should be here.
Some bettors might be put off by how Mikolas did in his most recent start, but perspective is important.
Coors Field is Coors Field, and with the bigger picture in mind, letting him stay in to try to work out of what ended up being a nine-run third inning was a reasonable thing to do in a game that wasn’t a must-win.
At home, things will be much, much different, and Mikolas and the Cardinals can be backed with confidence. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ashby have a decent start, but even if he does, it won’t be enough to get Milwaukee the win.
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Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.