Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 31, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Mon Mar 31, 2025, 1:59 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
mlb
The Baltimore Orioles face off against Sean Newcomb, a pitcher who has not appeared in a game since June 2024. Newcomb, with a career ERA of 4.51 and a WHIP of 1.47, presents a prime opportunity for the Orioles' elite hitters. Among them, Ryan Mountcastle stands out, offering significant value with his impressive home run trends and favorable matchup.
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Red Sox vs Orioles Odds
Will today be the day Ryan Mountcastle records his first home run of the season?
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Runline
Red Sox: +1.5 (-160)
Orioles: -1.5 (+140)
Total
Over: 9.5 (-112)
Under: 9.5 (-108)
Moneyline
Red Sox: +128
Orioles: -139
Red Sox vs Orioles Odds
Today, the Baltimore Orioles have the opportunity to face a pitcher who has not thrown in a real game since June 30, 2024. 31-year-old left-hander Sean Newcomb holds a career ERA of 4.51 and a WHIP of 1.47, earning the second-worst pitcher rating of the day. On top of that, he has the highest average hitter matchup wOBA and matchup ISO on today's slate. Newcomb has not played a full season since 2022.
The Orioles feature four elite-rated hitters today, with Ryan Mountcastle standing out the most. His elite trends are impressive. In 28 elite ratings, Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit 78.57% of the time. He has recorded two hits in 32.14% of those games and leaves the yard nearly 18% of the time. His home run prop today is +750, while his home run percentage implies around 4/1 odds, giving us significant value on the Orioles' first baseman.
The 28-year-old righty is coming off a 1-for-4 game against the Blue Jays. Hopefully, he can carry some momentum into the Orioles' first home series of the season against a pitcher who has not appeared in a game since the start of last summer. At nearly plus odds, this is a great price for Mountcastle. Do not hesitate to sprinkle on the home run as well.
Best Bet: Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-106) | Home Run (+750)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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