This series will, in fact, be heading back to Toronto after the Blue Jays stole another one from the Mariners on the road. This matchup has been unbelievable and could very well go seven games. However, I believe the Blue Jays will ultimately come out on top. They have completely flipped the script after being blown out in the first two games. This offense is locked in, and I want to keep backing it. That is why I am taking the Blue Jays first five team total over 1.5 at -125.
Blue Jays vs. Miller
Toronto enters today with five elite rated hitters, one above the league strikeout rate and another above the league ground ball rate. They face Bryce Miller for the second time this series. On Sunday, Miller went six full innings, allowing just one run on two hits. However, he enters today with a poor Batters-Box rating and rough matchup metrics across ISO, wOBA, hard contact, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.
Miller has struggled badly at home this season, posting a 5.80 ERA while allowing 46% hard contact and an 11% barrel rate. Over his last five home starts, he owns a 6.66 ERA (fittingly scary), 4.75 xERA, 53% hard contact rate, 16% barrel rate, and 2.96 HR/9.
Three of Toronto's elite rated hitters will bat from the right side tonight. In total, they have three elite right-handed bats and one more with a "Great" rating, per Batters-Box: Davis Schneider, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Alejandro Kirk. Each has played a key role throughout this postseason run.
Right-handed hitters have been punishing Miller lately. The last 30 he has faced have a .373 xBA, .953 xSLG, and .419 xwOBA. Meanwhile, his 3.38 ERA is deceiving when compared to a 7.08 xERA and 4.75 xFIP.
I fully expect the Blue Jays to get their revenge on Miller after their rough outing against him on Sunday. They have completely shifted the energy of this team since arriving in Seattle, and I believe that momentum will carry over as they head back home to Toronto this weekend.
Side Note: For those who believe the Blue Jays will win this series, the current price sits around -105. I am not thrilled with that number, as I was hoping for plus money. However, with the series heading back to Toronto, I believe the Blue Jays will ultimately come out on top. If they win tonight, the momentum they are carrying will simply be too much for the Mariners to overcome.
