After last night's embarrassing 13-4 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 3 of the ALCS, the Seattle Mariners look to bounce back in Game 4. Fortunately, they will face 41-year-old veteran Max Scherzer, who has looked every bit his age this season. The question is, does the old right-hander have an iconic outing left in the tank? I do not see it happening. That is why I am running back Seattle's first five team total over 1.5, priced at $1.60. Do not be afraid to pay the juice. It is two runs. The set number is, and always will be, a gift.
I will leave my infamous quote when it comes to over 1.5 runs in the first five:
"If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average more than two runs in the first five innings, and you are betting on an offense you already trust against a pitcher who likely does not deserve that level of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift." – Me
Scherzer vs. Mariners
Tonight, there is no respect for Scherzer, who enters with a poor rating and equally weak metrics in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage on Batters-Box. The veteran has struggled tremendously on the road, posting a 5.91 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Over his last five starts, he holds a 9.95 ERA, 7.28 xERA, and 2.10 WHIP, allowing 52% hard contact and an 18% barrel rate. During that span, hitters have a .337 xBA, .686 xSLG, and .424 xwOBA against him. Zooming in further, over his last three road starts, Scherzer has a 9.82 ERA, 6.22 xERA, 2.00 WHIP, and 5.12 xFIP. Opposing hitters in that stretch own a .309 xBA, .674 xSLG, and .397 xwOBA.
The Mariners offense features five elite-rated hitters tonight, none above the league ground ball rate and only three above the league strikeout rate. They have maintained a top-ten offense at home over the past four weeks and rank top five against right-handed pitchers in that same span. Four of those five elite bats will hit from the left side, and left-handed hitters have given Scherzer absolute fits lately. Over his last 60 left-handed batters faced, he holds a 9.75 ERA and 8.44 xERA, allowing 58% hard contact and a 23% barrel rate. Those hitters have produced a .456 xBA, 1.029 xSLG, and .449 xwOBA. They are crushing him.
Trust the Numbers
With how poorly Scherzer has pitched this season and how badly the Mariners need a win at home for their desperate fans, I believe this offense can easily deliver two or more runs in the first five innings. If the juice concerns you, do not worry. I will have a play out for Game 3 of Brewers vs. Dodgers later today that pairs perfectly with this one, giving us another strong angle to attack the slate.
