I know I have said to roll over Blue Jays moneyline until the end of the series, and I stand by that if you have no beans in this fight already. Forget the pitching matchup for a second and think back to all the moments Toronto had to win last night. The Blue Jays might be one of the toughest outs in baseball, every spot in that lineup has a burning fire, and anyone can step up when it matters. At +129 to win tonight, this is a great price to back the home team.
Now, for the Dodgers, guys who have been slumping have started to rise. Mookie Betts delivered a clutch two-run single yesterday to give Los Angeles the lead. Betts has been in the dumps this entire series, but if he is finding it again, the Dodgers could shock the world. And by world, I mean me, because they have looked flat for half this series.
I like a lot of angles tonight, so let's write for each fan base, and the props are identical.
Dodgers Props
If you like the Dodgers, take their first five team total over 2.5 at +115. This is their best chance to jump out early and put pressure on Toronto. Max Scherzer gets the ball tonight, and the 41-year-old right-hander enters with rough metrics across the board, poor wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball rates. Over his last five home starts, Scherzer has a 5.00 ERA and 5.77 xERA, allowing 42% hard contact and a 13% barrel rate. During that stretch, hitters have posted a .300 xBA, .580 xSLG, and .384 xWOBA. If you think the Dodgers can get to him early, this is your path.
Blue Jays Props
If you prefer value on the other side, the Blue Jays first five team total at 1.5 (-115) is a great number for a lineup that has thrived early all series long. Shohei Ohtani is expected to take the mound, and while his road ERA over the last five starts sits at 4.50, his expected ERA is just 2.72. You only need two runs, that is very doable with this offense.
I also do not mind the first five total over 4.5, especially if you can grab it at plus money. You back both teams, you get a fun sweat, and you do not have to stress over one lineup carrying the load.
If I had to pick one of the three plays above, I would back the Dodgers first five team total over 2.5 at +115. There is real value here. Scherzer has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, and if the top of the Dodgers lineup can jump on him early, this bet has a strong chance to cash before the bullpen even matters.
