How will Game 4 keep us on the edge of our seats? I have no idea, but there is one way to make sure the action stays exciting: by locking in a player prop tonight. With so many angles and so many players to target, it can feel overwhelming. That is exactly what makes finding the right matchup so satisfying. Tonight, one player stands out, someone who has been seeing the ball perfectly and is set up to deliver when it matters most.
So many players have value on the board, but who truly has the best matchup at the best price? I landed on one man who just missed a walk-off home run last night, like several others in Game 3. That man is Dodgers catcher Will Smith. No, not the action star, but the steady, elite backstop who flirted with a .300 average this season. His total bases prop has my full attention, especially at +130.
Smith's Trends
This marks Smith's 20th elite-rated game of the season, per Batters-Box, and he has delivered in these spots. When rated elite, he records a hit 58% of the time, 2+ hits 32%, goes over his total bases prop 58%, and leaves the yard in 26% of those games. At home, a 12 game sample size, but those numbers jump: 67% for a hit, 42% for 2+, 67% over 1.5 total bases, and 33% for a home run.
Bieber's Trends
Tonight, Smith faces right-hander Shane Bieber, who has struggled both on the road and against right-handed bats this season. In five road starts (regular and postseason combined), Bieber owns a 4.00 ERA and 4.17 xERA while allowing 51% hard contact and a 15% barrel rate. Opponents in that stretch have produced a .259 xBA, .505 xSLG, and .331 xwOBA.
Against his last 30 right-handed hitters, Bieber's numbers are even worse: a 5.68 ERA, 8.89 xERA, 56% hard contact, 28% barrel rate, and a staggering 5.06 HR/9. Those hitters have posted a .533 xBA, 1.119 xSLG, and .505 xwOBA.
Alongside Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernández, Mookie Betts, and Enrique Hernández, Smith stands out as the most reliable right-handed bat to target in Game 4.
Will Smith's consistency, power, and matchup advantage make him the top right-handed bat to back in Game 4. With Bieber's declining metrics against righties and Smith's strong history in elite-rated games, all signs point to another productive night at the plate. The value at +130 on his total bases prop is simply too strong to ignore, especially with the way he has been seeing the ball this series. In a game where one swing can change everything, Smith has both the form and matchup to deliver. Expect the Dodgers catcher to make an impact when it matters most.
