After two games, the World Series is all tied up as the action shifts to Los Angeles. The big question now is whether this series will make its way back to Toronto. As a baseball die-hard, I certainly hope so. Game 3, however, sets up as another prime opportunity for the Dodgers to grab early momentum, with 41-year-old Max Scherzer taking the mound for the Blue Jays.
I have been riding this angle all postseason and see no reason to stop now. The first five team total overs have been my bread and butter all year, and I am once again backing the Dodgers first five team total over 2.5 at even money. Frankly, I might stay on this prop for the rest of the series. After Scherzer, the Blue Jays turn to Shane Bieber in Game 4, another starter I expect to struggle on the road.
Scherzer's road numbers tell the story. In seven outings away from home this season, he holds a 5.91 ERA, 4.00 xERA, and 1.35 WHIP. In his lone postseason start, he lasted 5.2 innings, allowing two runs on three hits against Seattle.Over his last five road starts, he has allowed more than 2.5 runs in three of them. One of those outings came against these same Dodgers on August eighth, when he held them to two runs over six innings.
While it would not shock me if the veteran has one more vintage outing left, his recent road form is tough to ignore. Across his last three road starts, Scherzer owns a 10.97 ERA, 6.44 xERA, and 5.28 xFIP. During that stretch, opponents have tagged him for 54% hard contact, a 29% barrel rate, and 3.38 HR/9. Hitters are posting a .294 xBA, .674 xSLG, and .403 xwOBA against him.
The Dodgers' offense, meanwhile, has been rolling. Over the past four weeks at home against right-handed pitching, they rank inside the top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO, while holding the eighth-lowest strikeout rate during that span. Returning home to a raucous LA crowd should give them a little extra juice to take control of the series.
Do not be surprised if Freddie Freeman or Shohei Ohtani leave the yard in this one. Scherzer has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters lately. Over his last 30 faced, he has an 8.53 ERA, 8.04 xERA, and 4.60 xFIP, allowing nearly 67% hard contact and a 24% barrel rate. Those hitters are producing a .466 xBA, 1.060 xSLG, and .441 xwOBA.
For those eyeing the home run props, Ohtani sits around +160 and Freeman at +350. I would pass on Ohtani given the poor value, but Freeman's number, though lower than usual, still offers a more reasonable play.
Best Bet: Dodgers First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (Even) odds via BetOnline
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