Angels vs. Royals: First Five Props & More | September 4, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Thu Sep 04, 2025, 3:27 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Angels vs. Royals: The Royals offense is on fire, and tonight presents a perfect spot to capitalize. Kansas City's bats are rolling against right-handed pitching, and they face a struggling veteran on the road. First five runs over 2.5 looks like a strong play, and one Royals star stands out for some explosive extra-base action. With the team pushing for a playoff spot, tonight is more than just another game, it is an opportunity for value bets that make sense. I am breaking down why the Royals are set to shine, plus a couple bonus plays worth attention.
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Last Month: 62-84 (+8.53u)
Last Week: 8-13 (-1.25u)
Angels vs. Royals: Best Bets – September 4
Will we witness another Bobby Witt masterclass this evening?
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We are going right back to my bread and butter in this spot. The Royals first five team total over 2.5 is a go this evening. Kansas City enters today with the fourth highest rated offense on the day. Their bats have been on fire over the past couple of weeks, especially against right-handed pitchers. Over the last four weeks versus RHP, they rank in the top ten in wRC+, OPS, wOBA, ISO, walk rate, and hard contact, where they are ranked fourth.
This evening they take on veteran Kyle Hendricks, who carries the second worst rating on Batters-Box's current season ratings. On the road, he has struggled, posting a 5.05 ERA, allowing 5.1 hits and 2.9 runs per start. In his most recent road outing, he gave up seven hits but only one run in Houston. While his stats indicate some improvement, I believe he is due for a letdown.
The Royals top five hitters will all bat from the right side, and Hendricks has struggled significantly against right-handers this season. Over the last 60 right-handed bats he has faced, he owns a 4.61 ERA and 4.79 xERA. Meanwhile, hitters have posted a .359 xBA, .555 xSLG, and .354 xwOBA against him.
I love this spot for the Royals. I was a bit shocked by the price of 2.5 runs. Perhaps the books are starting to respect the Royals' hot bats over the last month, but I do not think they know how to properly price baseball props, so it means nothing to me.
Bonus Play
As mentioned, Hendricks struggles against right-handed hitters, so we are targeting the one that makes the most sense. I am taking Bobby Witt Jr. to record a double and a home run this evening. Why? I am not paying $1.40 for over 1.5 total bases when I am essentially banking on him to hit either a double or a home run tonight against Hendricks. The value is much better at +290 for a double and +350 for a home run.
The books are already pricing his props anticipating a big game, but I can handle a loss if he records two hits or hits a triple. That is fine by me.
Witt has an elite rating today on Batters-Box and he has the best numbers against all of Hendricks' offerings. He outperforms Salvador Perez, who carries a higher rating this evening. This is a prime spot to back the Royals star, who has not hit a double or home run since Saturday. After going hitless last night, I fully expect a bounce-back performance as the Royals continue pushing for a playoff berth.
Bonus Bonus Play
Speaking of pushing for a playoff berth, I locked in the Royals to make the postseason at 10/1 this afternoon. Kansas City is currently 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. The Mariners have struggled recently, going 4-6 in their last ten games. The Rangers are only a game and a half back, but they are dealing with injuries and face the fourth toughest remaining schedule. Meanwhile, the Royals sit with the 13th toughest schedule, right in that sweet middle spot. At this insane price, this is worth a dabble.
Best Bet: Royals First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-125) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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