Tampa Bay Downs Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep (03/07/2026)

Chris Adams

Written by: Chris Adams

Published: Fri Mar 06, 2026, 7:00 am ET

Read Time: 8 minutes

Tampa Bay Downs Gate

horses

The racing action from Tamp Bay Downs on Saturday features the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby. @HandicappingT3 has all the Tamp Bay Downs picks for the entire card!

Be sure to check out all the races and odds provided at the best horse racing betting sites. Use promo code BNBOL55 at signup to get a 55% first deposit match when you bet with BetOnline!

Tampa Bay Downs Full Card Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep (03/07/2026)

Tampa Bay Downs Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep (03/07/2026)

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:15 PM ET; Claiming $25.5k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

  • #5 MONA L (7-5): Top pick. Gallardo puts this one in with a chance.
  • #9 VESPER CHICKS (7-2): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace.
  • #4 MAMA DRAMA (3-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #3 ADIOS TIPSY (10-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 5 – 9 – 4 – 3

The Plays

Win: #5 at 8-5

Exacta Box: 5,9,4

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 12:45 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $60k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #2 BOD BEACH (9-2): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
  • #3 ACE FROM SPACE (2-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
  • #6 RESOLUTE WILL (3-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Top connections on the circuit with Prat and Brown.
  • #4 ROYAL MERIT (12-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.

Selections: 2 – 3 – 6 – 4

The Plays

Win: #2 at 5-1

Exacta Box: 2,3,6

Pick 3 (races 2-4): #2,3,6 with #5 with #2

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:27 PM ET; Handicap $70k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

Best Bet of the Card

  • #5 MYSTIC LAKE (3-5): Best bet of the card. Strong early pace figs. Race sets up perfectly. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
  • #7 MY MAGIC WAND (3-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Velazquez puts this one in with a chance.
  • #1 PRINCESS BRITNI (12-1): Underneath. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #6 IT'S GOODTOBE JOSE (20-1): Underneath. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong. Race shape gives this one an edge.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 1 – 6

The Plays

Win: #5 at 1-1

Exacta: 5/ 7,1

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 1:56 PM ET; Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes $125k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

  • #2 DISCO TIME (3-5): Prime Win Player. Comes in with solid form. Stamina to outlast the competition.
  • #6 SOLO VENTURI (4-1): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
  • #1 DISRUPTOR (7-2): Fringe Contender. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #5 CATALYTIC (15-1): Fringe Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Race shape gives this one an edge.

Selections: 2 – 6 – 1 – 5

The Plays

Win: #2 at 4-5

Exacta: 2/ 6,1

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:26 PM ET; Allowance $60.5k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 9 runners.

  • #5 MIDWAY MEMORIES (5-2): Top pick. Solid closing kick. Stamina to outlast the competition.
  • #3 PORTFOLIO DURATION (7-5): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #7 SONJA HENIE (6-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. Should sit a good trip.
  • #8 MRS. KATZ (6-1): Contender. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 5 – 3 – 7 – 8

The Plays

Win: #5 at 3-1

Exacta Box: 5,3

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 2:57 PM ET; Starter Optional Claiming $33k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

  • #8 SILVER SLUGGER (4-5): Prime Win Player. Stamina to outlast the competition. Race sets up perfectly.
  • #11 SECRET EMPIRE (5-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues.
  • #7 EL CHISPAZO (8-1): Fringe Contender. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #5 IN SKY WE TRUST (20-1): Fringe Contender. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.

Selections: 8 – 11 – 7 – 5

The Plays

Win: #8 at 6-5

Exacta: 8/ 11,7

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 3:27 PM ET; Columbia Stakes $125k; 1 M Turf; Field of 9 runners.

  • #5 ALPYLAND (9-5): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Race sets up perfectly.
  • #8 BEAUTIFUL WAR (6-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.
  • #2 PROTON (3-1): Contender. Potential to kick home late. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #9 A MILLION DREAMS (20-1): Contender. Could be ready to hit a peak performance. Could be griding down the competition late.

Selections: 5 – 8 – 2 – 9

The Plays

Win: #5 at 2-1

Exacta: 5/ 8,2

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 3:58 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $60k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

  • #2 RIGHT TIMING (9-5): Prime Win Player. Barn has been solid. Proven competitor at this configuration.
  • #10 TECHSTAR (6-1): Contender. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Running well of late.
  • #4 ENDLESS GLORY (12-1): Fringe Contender. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #1 STATE CHARMER (8-1): Underneath. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 2 – 10 – 4 – 1

The Plays

Win: #2 at 2-1

Exacta: 2/ 10,4

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:29 PM ET; Hillsborough Stakes $225k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 8 runners.

  • #1 WHISKEY DECISION (2-1): Top pick. Looks good based on the 97 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
  • #2 PROCTOR STREET (9-2): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Velazquez and Walsh team up on this one.
  • #4 DESTINO D'ORO (5-2): Major Player. Should sit a good trip. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #6 CHILD OF THE MOON (5-1): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 4 – 6

The Plays

Win: #1 at 5-2

Exacta Box: 1,2,4

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 5:00 PM ET; Florida Oaks $200k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.

  • #7 TIME TO DREAM (5-2): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Ortiz and Pletcher team up on this one.
  • #11 LAIGINA (7-2): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.
  • #2 ALONE TIME (12-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #10 BRAMBLE BLAST (30-1): Contender. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 7 – 11 – 2 – 10

The Plays

Win: #7 at 3-1

Exacta Box: 7,11

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 5:35 PM ET; ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby $400k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

  • #6 FURTHER ADO (9-5): Prime Win Player. Strong early pace figs. Favorable class relief in this spot.
  • #2 TALKIN (15-1): Contender. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
  • #9 CANALETTO (5-2): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. May be able find the right setup.
  • #8 THE PUMA (8-1): Contender. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 6 – 2 – 9 – 8

The Plays

Win: #6 at 2-1

Exacta: 6/ 9,8

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Race 12

Post Time: 6:05 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $60k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 13 runners.

Longshot Play of the Day

Longshot Play of the Day

  • #10 CONSIDER ME FIRST (5-1): Longshot play of the day. Favorable class relief in this spot. Bet today's live longshot on MyBookie.
  • #8 FUND FLOWS (7-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
  • #2 LIMA LIMA (6-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #5 TIZ THE LADY (8-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 10 – 8 – 2 – 5

The Plays

Win: #10 at 4-1

Exacta: 10/ 8,2,5

Betting News Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Coverage

Don't miss all the horse racing action covered by Betting News each and every week. Coverage includes free handicapping tools, comprehensive guides, and in-depth analysis of the week's biggest cards. Check out our full card analysis for this week's upcoming big races including all of the upcoming Kentucky Derby prep races!

Saturday Analysis

Betting News Horse Racing Coverage

Don't miss all the horse racing action covered by Betting News each and every week. Coverage includes free handicapping tools, comprehensive guides, and in-depth analysis of the week's biggest cards. Check out our full card analysis for this week's upcoming big races.

Chris Adams
Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.