Churchill Downs Picks: Rags to Riches Stakes (10/25/2026)

Chris Adams

Written by: Chris Adams

Published: Sun Oct 25, 2026, 7:00 am ET

Read Time: 8 minutes

Road to the Kentucky Derby Betting Guide cover (Churchill Downs, the site of the Kentucky Derby)

horses

Churchill Downs picks are here for a 11-race card topped by the Rags to Riches Stakes. Below you will find full Churchill Downs picks and analysis for every race on the October 25, 2026 program, including a best bet, a live longshot and suggested wagers for each event.

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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs Picks: Rags to Riches Stakes (10/25/2026)

Churchill Downs Picks: Rags to Riches Stakes (10/25/2026)

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:00 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #5 BROADWAY GIRL (8-5): Major Player. The work tab reads like a horse ready to run, not one being educated. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Cox.
  • #1 JETSETTER (8-1): Major Player. Distance change should suit. Figures fit comfortably at this level.
  • #4 MY PAL AL (10-1): Contender. Consistently runs above the level it faces. Numbers grade out better than the raw figures suggest.
  • #8 TESS ME NOT (9-2): Contender. The 72 speed rating is among the top in the group. Speed numbers are right there with the top group.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 4 – 8

The Plays

Win: #5 at 5-2

Trifecta: 5,1 / 5,1,4,8 / 5,1,4,8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 12:29 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.

  • #11 NOVO MESTO (7-2): Major Player. Owns the fastest recent figure in the field at 83. Recent form lines measure up to these.
  • #2 RUMBELIEVABLE (8-1): Major Player. Outruns the class par more often than not. Runs better than the bare figures indicate once class is factored in.
  • #1 SPECIAL BUTTERFLY (6-1): Contender. Has been drilling steadily into the debut. Bred to be effective on this surface right away.
  • #13 GOLDBUTTONTHURSDAY (6-1): Contender. Serious work pattern behind this first start. The morning line of works shows a horse wound up for the opener.

Selections: 11 – 2 – 1 – 13

The Plays

Win: #11 at 5-2

Exacta: 11 / 2,1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 12:58 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

  • #3 HAT YAI (8-1): Major Player. Enough recorded works to trust the fitness. The page says this one should handle the trip first time out.
  • #7 MO OCTANE (6-1): Major Player. The barn wins with first-time starters at a rate that demands respect. Pedigree ratings support an immediate run.
  • #8 EPIC MAX (5-1): Contender. Family suggests precocity at this distance. Santamaria and Torres team up, and that combination wins its share.
  • #5 PIRATE SHIP (7-2): Contender. Improving with each start. Strong connections with Sharp sending out Ortiz.

Selections: 3 – 7 – 8 – 5

The Plays

Win: #3 at 5-2

Trifecta: 3,7 / 3,7,8,5 / 3,7,8,5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 1:28 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 15 runners.

  • #10 AWAY IN THE HAZE (12-1): Major Player. A well-meant first-time starter against a group that has not run to par. Nothing in here has run to the class par, which leaves the door open for a newcomer.
  • #4 VOLI TE (9-2): Major Player. This trainer's debut runners fire, and the angle is live again here. Sharp has the barn rolling and keeps Ortiz aboard.
  • #12 NAUTI TALK (7-2): Contender. Connections have a real record with firsters. The Cox barn strikes at a healthy clip in this spot.
  • #13 FIERY RUFINA (20-1): Contender. A stable that does not run its babies until they are ready.

Selections: 10 – 4 – 12 – 13

The Plays

Win: #10 at 5-2

Exacta: 10 / 4,12

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 1:57 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.

  • #14 CASTLE PINES (3-1): Best Bet of the Card. Figures have climbed in three straight. Has been exceeding what the level demands. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
  • #8 BIATHLON (30-1): Major Player. Meaningful class relief today. Looks good based on the 25.3 speed rating.
  • #3 FREDDY TAUBER (8-1): Contender. The work tab reads like a horse ready to run, not one being educated.
  • #11 BARDSTOWN (20-1): Contender. Pedigree says the surface switch is worth a try. Has the numbers to be involved late.

Selections: 14 – 8 – 3 – 11

The Plays

Win: #14 at 8-5

Pick 3 (Races 5-7): #14 with #9,7,3 with #7,4,11

Exacta: 14 / 8,3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 2:26 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

  • #9 VUKOTA (5-2): Major Player. Quickest of these on recent form with a 90. Quick enough to matter in the closing stages.
  • #7 C R SULTAN (6-1): Major Player. Ran at this level last out. A 6 is plenty fast for this spot.
  • #3 LORD MISCHIEF (4-1): Contender. Has been drilling steadily into the debut. Ortiz takes the mount for Cox, which is worth noting.
  • #4 RUNNING TICKET (8-1): Contender. Serious work pattern behind this first start.

Selections: 9 – 7 – 3 – 4

The Plays

Win: #9 at 5-2

Exacta: 9 / 7,3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 2:55 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 14 runners.

  • #7 STAND BY ME (9-2): Major Player. Top speed number in the race by a clear margin. Form lines read well against this group.
  • #11 SCARLET RIBBONS (5-2): Major Player. The morning line of works shows a horse wound up for the opener. Connections are as strong as any in the race.
  • #2 GHOSTLINE (6-1): Contender. Enough recorded works to trust the fitness.
  • #12 LUXDOMINA (5-1): Contender. The work tab reads like a horse ready to run, not one being educated.

Selections: 7 – 11 – 2 – 12

The Plays

Win: #7 at 5-2

Exacta: 7 / 11,2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 3:25 PM CT; Allowance $127k; 5 F Turf; Field of 10 runners.

  • #8 MEDINAH (6-5): Major Player. Competitive in the same class recently.
  • #5 CIARLATANO (10-1): Major Player. Numbers are competitive with anything else entered. Has been facing this kind and holding its own.
  • #3 BEE CRAZY (3-1): Contender. No class question at this level. Best late pace figure in the field at 84.
  • #2 CAFE ROSE (12-1): Contender. Belongs on class and should be in the mix.

Selections: 8 – 5 – 3 – 2

The Plays

Win: #8 at 5-2

Trifecta: 8,5 / 8,5,3,2 / 8,5,3,2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 3:55 PM CT; Rags to Riches Stakes $200k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

  • #4 COUNTTHETRUE (12-1): Contender. Clearly moving forward off the last two.
  • #3 OH SHE SAID YES (5-2): Contender. Beaten only 84 lengths last out against similar.
  • #5 LUNAR VELOCITY (8-1): Contender. Has been knocking on the door in similar spots.
  • #2 WHARFIE (9-5): Contender. Consistent enough to be a factor at this level.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 5 – 2

The Plays

Win: #4 at 7-2

Trifecta: 4,3 / 4,3,5,2 / 4,3,5,2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 4:25 PM CT; Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes $200k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #3 CARD MAN (5-2): Major Player. Has been beating the par for the class by 10 points.
  • #4 MYSTIK BAYOU (9-5): Major Player. Consistently runs above the level it faces.
  • #2 BLESSED FLYER (7-2): Contender. Ran at this level last out.
  • #7 STAUNCH (5-1): Contender. Competitive in the same class recently.

Selections: 3 – 4 – 2 – 7

The Plays

Win: #3 at 5-2

Trifecta: 3,4 / 3,4,2,7 / 3,4,2,7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 4:55 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 13 runners.

Longshot Play of the Day

  • #1 FULLBACK (6-1): Longshot Play of the Day. Figures fit comfortably at this level. Bet today's live longshot on MyBookie.
  • #4 AUTOMATIC PRESS (10-1): Contender. Numbers grade out better than the raw figures suggest.
  • #5 FOOLS RUSH IN (3-1): Contender. The 82 speed rating is among the top in the group.
  • #3 MONNIE (15-1): Contender. Has been facing this kind and holding its own.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 5 – 3

The Plays

Win: #1 at 3-1

Trifecta: 1,4 / 1,4,5,3 / 1,4,5,3

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Chris Adams
Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

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