Saratoga Picks: Grade 1 Belmont Derby (7/4/2026)

Chris Adams

Written by: Chris Adams

Published: Sat Jul 04, 2026, 7:00 am ET

Read Time: 7 minutes

Saratoga Thursday: P.G. Johnson Analysis Selections (9/1) cover - Saratoga Picks

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The racing action from Saratoga on Saturday features the Belmont Derby Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Saratoga picks for the entire card!

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Saratoga Full Card Analysis

Saratoga Picks: Grade 1 Belmont Derby (7/4/2026)

Saratoga Picks: Grade 1 Belmont Derby (7/4/2026)

Saratoga Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:35 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $120k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 5 runners.

  • #1 FEMINISM (3-1): Top Pick. Barn has been solid. Favorable class relief in this spot.
  • #4 MASHALLAH (3-5): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Likely to get forward position.
  • #3 LOVELY CHRISTINA (5-2): Fringe Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #5 LIGHTSCAPE (15-1): Fringe Contender. Top connections on the circuit with Lezcano and Proctor. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5

The Plays

Win: #1 at 5-2

Pick 3 (Races 1-3): #1,4 with #4 with #7,10

Exacta: 1 / 3,5

Saratoga Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 1:09 PM ET; Allowance $120k; 1 M Turf; Field of 12 runners.

  • #4 EPONINE (5-2): Best Bet of the Card. Solid closing kick. Looks good based on the 86 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
  • #2 ACCENT (8-5): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Speed figures match this group well.
  • #6 NEW ROSE (10-1): Contender. Potentially ready to hit a top number. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #8 SPECIAL WOOD (12-1): Contender. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 6 – 8

The Plays

Win: #4 at 1-1

Exacta: 4 / 6,8

Saratoga Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:44 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $115k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 12 runners.

  • #7 HOME WRECKER (10-1): Top Pick. Solid breeding for this spot. Barn has been solid.
  • #10 BOURBON MILK PUNCH (8-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. Speed figures match this group well.
  • #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED (9-2): Major Player. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #8 NONCONSECUTIVETRMS (7-2): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well. Solid turn of foot.

Selections: 7 – 10 – 5 – 8

The Plays

Win: #7 at 5-1

Exacta: 7 / 10,5,8

Saratoga Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 2:19 PM ET; Allowance $105k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #8 GRACE AND GRIT (7-2): Top Pick. Barn has been solid. Rodriguez and Green team up on this one.
  • #5 QUEENS CAT (6-1): Major Player. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Speed figures match this group well.
  • #1 LIGHTNING STRIKE (9-5): Major Player. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #2 GRACEFUL ROSE (15-1): Contender. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 8 – 5 – 1 – 2

The Plays

Win: #8 at 3-1

Exacta: 8 / 5,2

Saratoga Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:54 PM ET; Sanford Stakes $225k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

  • #2 BOOKED (3-1): Top Pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Favorable class relief in this spot.
  • #1 WAGGLEY (6-1): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #5 VISSINO (6-1): Major Player. Not likely to be short in the stretch. May be able to find the right setup.
  • #6 JACK'S GOLDEN GOAL (8-1): Major Player. Speed figs are a bit slow, but not completely hopeless against the top of the field. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 5 – 6

The Plays

Win: #2 at 5-2

Exacta: 2 / 1,5,6

Saratoga Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 3:29 PM ET; Allowance $105k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 16 runners.

  • #15 JOKER ON FIRE (5-1): Top Pick. Races competitive with the top contenders. Could be ready for a top effort.
  • #11 VAN VOLLENHOVEN (7-2): Major Player. Should still be running strong in the closing stages. Should take a liking to the race shape.
  • #2 CRISTOBAL (9-2): Major Player. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #16 COUNTER MOVE (9-2): Major Player. Could be grinding down the competition late. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 15 – 11 – 2 – 16

The Plays

Win: #15 at 4-1

Exacta: 15 / 11,2,16

Saratoga Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 4:06 PM ET; Belmont Oaks Stakes $600k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 10 runners.

Longshot Play of the Day

  • #1 JUST ALOOF (8-1): Longshot Play of the Day. Barn has been solid. Proven competitor at this configuration. Bet today's live longshot on MyBookie.
  • #4 FAITHFUL DEPARTED (5-1): Contender. Running well of late. Comes home strong.
  • #6 FITZ RIGHT (6-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #10 IMAGINATIONTHELADY (4-1): Contender. Recent races are solid. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 6 – 10

The Plays

Win: #1 at 5-1

Trifecta: 1 / 4,6 / 4,6,10

Saratoga Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 4:42 PM ET; Suburban Stakes Presented by Subourbon Life $500k; 1 1/4 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

  • #2 FORGED STEEL (4-1): Top Pick. Shouldn't have trouble getting the distance. Race may setup for this runner.
  • #8 HIT SHOW (5-1): Major Player. Seems to be up against the right competition. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
  • #10 ORIGINAL SIN (10-1): Major Player. Should sit a good trip. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #7 ANTIQUARIAN (3-1): Major Player. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.

Selections: 2 – 8 – 10 – 7

The Plays

Win: #2 at 3-1

Exacta: 2 / 8,10,7

Saratoga Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 5:20 PM ET; Belmont Derby Stakes $750k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 10 runners.

  • #3 REMEMBER MAMBA (7-2): Top Pick. Comes in with solid form. Stamina to outlast the competition.
  • #10 TOUCH OF FIRE (5-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.
  • #8 WEST END KID (3-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #1 BLACKMAIL (12-1): Major Player. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 3 – 10 – 8 – 1

The Plays

Win: #3 at 3-1

Exacta: 3 / 10,8,1

Saratoga Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 5:56 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $130k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

  • #9 WARP NINE (15-1): Top Pick. Looks good based on the 104 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Fits well with this group.
  • #1 BANK FRENZY (8-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #10 FLOOD ZONE (12-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #3 FULL SCREEN (7-2): Major Player. Recent races are solid. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 9 – 1 – 10 – 3

The Plays

Win: #9 at 5-1

Exacta: 9 / 1,10,3

Saratoga Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 6:31 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $100k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 12 runners.

  • #11 SILLY SEASON (2-1): Top Pick. Should improve off the debut. Barn has been solid.
  • #8 ZAP THAT GHOST (10-1): Major Player. Comes home strong. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #12 SUITED CONNECTORS (4-1): Major Player. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
  • #1 MORNING PRAYER (7-2): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 11 – 8 – 12 – 1

The Plays

Win: #11 at 7-5

Exacta: 11 / 8,12,1

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Chris Adams
Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

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