Keeneland Picks: Final Kentucky Derby Prep, Lexington Analysis (4/11/2026)
Written by: Chris Adams
Published: Sat Apr 11, 2026, 7:00 am ET
Read Time: 8 minutes
horses
The racing action from Keeneland on Saturday features the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Keeneland picks for the entire card!
Be sure to check out all the races and odds provided at the best horse racing betting sites. Use promo code BNBOL55 at signup to get a 55% first deposit match when you bet with BetOnline!
A Kentucky Derby Prep Race?
The Stonestreet Lexington marks the official end of the Kentucky Derby prep season. However, given it's proximity to the first Saturday in May, the legitimate players have already wrapped their final preps and are currently in training for the prestigious race.
Even the Road to the Kentucky Derby committee seems to devalue the significance of the Lexington, dropping its points down to 20. Such a low point value hasn't been given since mid February in races like the Sunland Derby and the Sam F. Davis. With so few points available the race is likely to have little to no bearing on the Kentucky Derby in 2026.
Keeneland Full Card Analysis
Keeneland Picks: Final Kentucky Derby Prep, Lexington Analysis (4/11/2026)
Keeneland Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 1:00 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $53k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.
- #8 BUCKEYE BOMBSHELL (4-1): Top pick. Solid breeding for this spot. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #2 QUEEN MCKINZIE (10-1): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues.
- #9 WEST COAST DREAM (6-1): Contender. Likely in the mix early. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
- #7 GALATINA (8-1): Fringe Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out.
Selections: 8 – 2 – 9 – 7
The Plays
Win: #8 at 3-1
Exacta: 8 / 2,9
Pick 3 (races 1-3): #8,2 with #6 with #4
Keeneland Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 1:32 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $48k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 16 runners.
- #6 BEALE STREET BOY (3-1): Prime Win Player. Favorable class relief in this spot. Decent form of late.
- #4 SEPTEMBER SILVER (5-1): Contender. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #12 GENTLEMAN JIM (6-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Could wear these ones down late.
- #3 STANDARD DEDUCTION (7-2): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Early pace figs should have this one involved from the start.
Selections: 6 – 4 – 12 – 3
The Plays
Win: #6 at 3-1
Exacta: 6 / 4,12
Keeneland Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 2:04 PM ET; Starter Allowance $50k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
Best Bet of the Card
- #4 MONEY RUN (5-2): Best bet of the card. Top connections on the circuit with Prat and Miller. Race sets up perfectly. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
- #7 EYE DEE KAY (8-5): Underneath. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Good race flow for this runner.
- #6 FOUNTAIN RUN (12-1): Underneath. Hard to argue with the recent races. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
- #3 KING OF HOLLYWOOD (4-1): Underneath. Trainer's horses have been running.
Selections: 4 – 7 – 6 – 3
The Plays
Win: #4 at 1-1
Exacta: 4 / 7
Keeneland Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 2:36 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $110k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.
- #4 SHEWONTBUDGE (1-1): Prime Win Player. Favorable class relief in this spot. Should be able to work out a trip.
- #8 ROCKIN ROBIN (3-1): Fringe Contender. Running well of late. Speed figures match this group well.
- #3 ONCE UPON A TIME (30-1): Underneath. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race. Potentially ready to hit a top number.
- #2 ISLAND BARBIE (8-1): Underneath. Trainer's horses have been running. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.
Selections: 4 – 8 – 3 – 2
The Plays
Win: #4 at 1-1
Exacta: 4 / 8
Keeneland Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 3:08 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $110k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 12 runners.
- #3 COMPREHENSIVE (5-2): Top pick. Decent form of late. Shouldn't have trouble getting the distance.
- #12 WRATHCHILD (5-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #4 MAGICAL FACTOR (15-1): Major Player. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race. May be able find the right setup.
- #6 MINOTAUR (4-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. May be getting a weaker field than last out.
Selections: 3 – 12 – 4 – 6
The Plays
Win: #3 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 3,12,4
Keeneland Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 3:40 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $130k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #1 EXCITE (7-2): Top pick. Fits well with this group.
- #2 AUTHENTIC STRIKE (2-1): Major Player. Should take a liking to the race shape. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #4 CURLIN'S MALIBU (6-1): Contender. May be able find the right setup.
- #7 CONQUEST WARRIOR (9-5): Contender. Debuting here, this one is at short odds. Potential for talent. Race shape gives this one an edge.
Selections: 1 – 2 – 4 – 7
The Plays
Win: #1 at 3-1
Exacta: 1 / 2,4
Keeneland Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 4:12 PM ET; Allowance $120k; 1 M Turf; Field of 9 runners.
- #7 NOBLE CONFESSOR (3-1): Prime Win Player. Love the heart this one shows in a fight. Could be ready for a top effort.
- #4 CIRO DI MARZIO (4-1): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet. Seems to be up against the right competition.
- #6 ARKHIPOV (8-5): Fringe Contender. Previous success in similar race types. This one's a fighter in the late stages.
- #2 LOVE'M OR LIAM (6-1): Underneath. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 7 – 4 – 6 – 2
The Plays
Win: #7 at 5-2
Exacta: 7 / 4,6
Keeneland Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 4:44 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $110k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.
- #3 RIGHT TIMING (5-2): Top pick. Top connections on the circuit with Prat and Brown. Looks good based on the 87 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
- #12 AL GHADEER (8-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #8 EPIC PROUD MARY (10-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types.
- #2 ARCANA (10-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 3 – 12 – 8 – 2
The Plays
Win: #3 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 3,12,8
Keeneland Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 5:16 PM ET; Jenny Wiley Stakes $650k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 10 runners.
- #10 SEGESTA (7-2): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly.
- #5 DYNAMIC PRICING (6-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Should take a liking to the race shape.
- #7 LUSH LIPS (5-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Speed figs match up nicely.
- #3 MEDORO (12-1): Major Player. Could be ready to hit a peak performance. Could be grinding down the competition late.
Selections: 10 – 5 – 7 – 3
The Plays
Win: #10 at 3-1
Exacta Box: 10,5,7
Keeneland Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 5:48 PM ET; Stonestreet Lexington Stakes $400k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.
- #10 CONFESSIONAL (7-2): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly. Favorable class relief in this spot.
- #11 I DID I DID (10-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. May be able to take advantage of the pace.
- #8 TRENDSETTER (20-1): Contender. Hard to argue with the recent races. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
- #2 EXHIBITION ONLY (10-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Early pace figs should have this one involved from the start.
Selections: 10 – 11 – 8 – 2
The Plays
Win: #10 at 3-1
Exacta: 10 / 11,8
Keeneland Picks – Race 11
Post Time: 6:20 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $110k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 12 runners.
- #4 HEEERE'S JOHNNY (7-2): Top pick. Looks good based on the 87 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Solid closing kick.
- #11 COORDINATOR (4-1): Major Player. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #6 WEST END KID (9-2): Major Player. Previous success in similar race types. Barn has been sending out runners.
- #7 SOULMAN (10-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.
Selections: 4 – 11 – 6 – 7
The Plays
Win: #4 at 3-1
Exacta Box: 4,11,6
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Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.
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