Keeneland Picks: Blue Grass Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis (4/4/2026)
Written by: Chris Adams
Published: Sat Apr 04, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 8 minutes
horses
The racing action from Keeneland on Saturday features the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Keeneland picks for the entire card!
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Keeneland Full Card Analysis
Keeneland Picks: Blue Grass Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis (4/4/2026)
Keeneland Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 1:00 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $120k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 6 runners.
Longshot Play of the Day
- #1 CLOCKER SPECIAL (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Barn has been solid. Strong early pace figs. Bet today's live longshot on MyBookie.
- #5 QUALITY MISCHIEF (9-2): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #4 VERY CONNECTED (5-2): Major Player. Likely in the mix early. Previous success in similar race types.
- #6 GETHSEMANE (3-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 1 – 5 – 4 – 6
The Plays
Win: #1 at 4-1
Exacta Box: 1,5
Keeneland Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 1:32 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $110k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #8 ACCOST (7-2): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Races competitive with the top contenders.
- #7 GILDED BANDIT (4-1): Major Player. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #10 GRANDE SORPRESO (15-1): Contender. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race. May be able find the right setup.
- #4 DEEP FLAME (2-1): Contender. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.
Selections: 8 – 7 – 10 – 4
The Plays
Win: #8 at 3-1
Exacta: 8 / 7,10
Keeneland Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 2:04 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $120k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
- #3 SWING VOTE (2-1): Top pick. Love the heart this one shows in a fight. Race sets up perfectly.
- #4 SIPPIN PRETTY (3-1): Major Player. Speed figures match this group well. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #2 OUR TWO GIRLS (4-1): Major Player. May be able find the right setup. Has experience at this level.
- #1 CAMILA CATALINA (10-1): Major Player. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Trainer's horses have been running.
Selections: 3 – 4 – 2 – 1
The Plays
Win: #3 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 3,4,2
Keeneland Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 2:36 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $110k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 15 runners.
- #10 DYNA (4-1): Prime Win Player. Solid closing kick. Stamina to outlast the competition.
- #2 HONFLEUR (3-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Should take a liking to the race shape.
- #9 JUST IN TOUCH (8-1): Contender. Pedigree fits in this spot. Potential to kick home late.
- #3 PASEO (6-1): Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong.
Selections: 10 – 2 – 9 – 3
The Plays
Win: #10 at 3-1
Exacta: 10 / 2,9
Pick 3 (races 4-6): #10,2 with #14, 10,2,3 with #3
Keeneland Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 3:08 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $130k; About 7 F Dirt; Field of 14 runners.
- #14 JOHN HANCOCK (3-1): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #10 PRAETOR (8-5): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.
- #2 GATE TO WIRE (9-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Previous success in similar race types.
- #3 IMPLEMENTATION (10-1): Major Player. Trainer's horses have been running.
Selections: 14 – 10 – 2 – 3
The Plays
Win: #14 at 3-1
Exacta Box: 14,10,2
Keeneland Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 3:40 PM ET; Allowance $130k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 9 runners.
Best Bet of the Card
- #3 SHOOT IT TRUE (3-5): Best bet of the card. Looks good based on the 94 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Proven competitor at this configuration. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
- #8 HEY BERTIE (9-2): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet. Should take a liking to the race shape.
- #5 BUTTERCREAM BABE (6-1): Fringe Contender. Potential to have this pace fall just right. Barn has been sending out runners.
- #4 SERVING TIME (8-1): Fringe Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Could be ready to hit a peak performance.
Selections: 3 – 8 – 5 – 4
The Plays
Win: #3 at 1-1
Exacta: 3 / 8
Keeneland Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 4:12 PM ET; Commonwealth Stakes $350k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #7 SAUDI CROWN (8-5): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Looks good based on the 102 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
- #2 CRAZY MASON (3-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance.
- #1 BE YOU (7-2): Contender. Velazquez and Pletcher team up on this one.
- #3 TRACK MATE (12-1): Contender. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 7 – 2 – 1 – 3
The Plays
Win: #7 at 2-1
Exacta: 7 / 2,1
Keeneland Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 4:44 PM ET; Appalachian Stakes Presented by Japan Racing Association $500k; 1 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.
- #9 SISTER TROIENNE (5-2): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Races competitive with the top contenders.
- #10 IMAGINATIONTHELADY (7-2): Major Player. Looks fast enough off previous efforts. May be able to take advantage of the pace.
- #7 JUST ALOOF (10-1): Major Player. Top connections on the circuit with Prat and Brown. Previous success in similar race types.
- #6 STORM'S WAKE (15-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.
Selections: 9 – 10 – 7 – 6
The Plays
Win: #9 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 9,10,7
Keeneland Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 5:16 PM ET; Resolute Racing Madison Stakes $650k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
- #6 R DISASTER (3-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Barn has been solid.
- #3 CLICQUOT (6-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Good race flow for this runner.
- #2 STERLING SILVER (10-1): Major Player. Has experience at this level. Should sit a good trip.
- #5 GRAND JOB (2-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong.
Selections: 6 – 3 – 2 – 5
The Plays
Win: #6 at 3-1
Exacta Box: 6,3,2
Keeneland Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 5:49 PM ET; Valvoline Global Shakertown Stakes $400k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 14 runners.
- #4 YELLOW CARD (10-1): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Races competitive with the top contenders.
- #8 LITIGATION (4-1): Major Player. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues. Good race flow for this runner.
- #2 MY BOY PRINCE (6-1): Major Player. The 102 speed rating is among the best in the field. Should sit a good trip.
- #12 USUALLY WRONG (9-2): Major Player. Recent races are solid. May be getting a weaker field than last out.
Selections: 4 – 8 – 2 – 12
The Plays
Win: #4 at 4-1
Exacta Box: 4,8,2
Keeneland Picks – Race 11
Post Time: 6:22 PM ET; Toyota Blue Grass Stakes $1250k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.
- #6 FURTHER ADO (8-5): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance.
- #2 CLASS PRESIDENT (7-2): Major Player. This one debuts at low odds. Backside buzz? Seems to be up against the right competition.
- #1 TALKIN (10-1): Contender. Potentially ready to hit a top number. Likely in the mix early.
- #5 CREOLE CHROME (8-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 6 – 2 – 1 – 5
The Plays
Win: #6 at 2-1
Exacta: 6 / 2,1
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Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.
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