Churchill Downs Picks: Roxelana Stakes Analysis (4/25/2026)

Chris Adams

Written by: Chris Adams

Published: Sat Apr 25, 2026, 8:00 am ET

Read Time: 7 minutes

The Falls City will be featured on the Churchill Thanksgiving card.

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The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the Roxelana Stakes presented by LG&E KU. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!

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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs Picks: Roxelana Stakes Analysis (4/25/2026)

Churchill Downs Picks: Roxelana Stakes Analysis (4/25/2026)

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:45 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/4 M Dirt; Field of 6 runners.

  • #5 PLAZA CUE (2-1): Prime Win Player. Strong early pace figs. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
  • #6 PURE JOY (8-5): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
  • #3 ATI GIRL (3-1): Underneath. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #2 ISLAND GIRL (6-1): Underneath. Recent races are solid. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 3 – 2

The Plays

Win: #5 at 5-2

Exacta: 5/ 6,3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 1:20 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 4 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #1 SARGENT BILKO (7-2): Prime Win Player. Solid breeding for this spot. Favorable class relief in this spot.
  • #7 UNCLE WITH MONEY (6-1): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #5 HAPPY AWAY (7-5): Contender. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #4 TIGRADO (8-1): Fringe Contender. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 1 – 7 – 5 – 4

The Plays

Win: #1 at 4-1

Exacta: 1/ 7,5,4

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:56 PM ET; Claiming $63k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 6 runners.

  • #3 LADY ORIENT (6-5): Prime Win Player. Barn has been solid. Race may setup for this runner.
  • #2 BARBRATINA (2-1): Contender. Running well of late. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
  • #1 CHAMPAGNE NIGHTS (8-1): Fringe Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Ramos and Brownfield team up on this one.
  • #6 WILD ACCLAIM (10-1): Underneath. Morales and Mckeever team up on this one. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 3 – 2 – 1 – 6

The Plays

Win: #3 at 6-5

Exacta: 3/ 2,1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 3:05 PM ET; Claiming $45k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #8 HOCUS (9-2): Top pick. Should still have something in the tank late.
  • #1 ILLINI (3-1): Major Player. Graham and Heath team up on this one. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #3 BE HERE (10-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
  • #5 LORD MAJESTY (5-2): Major Player. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Top connections on the circuit with Gaffalione and Jacobso.

Selections: 8 – 1 – 3 – 5

The Plays

Win: #8 at 5-1

Exacta Box: 8,1,5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 3:38 PM ET; Starter Allowance $62k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 6 runners.

  • #1 WISTUCKY (7-5): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Race may setup for this runner.
  • #3 EXPLORATION (3-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Good race flow for this runner.
  • #6 TIGER'S LEGACY (9-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Hard to argue with the recent races.
  • #2 BAYTOWN BRUISER (7-2): Fringe Contender. Could be griding down the competition late. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.

Selections: 1 – 3 – 6 – 2

The Plays

Win: #1 at 8-5

Exacta Box: 1,3,6

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 4:12 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $35k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 14 runners.

  • #13 CLICK (7-2): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Races competitive with the top contenders.
  • #8 DANCEWHENYOUCAN (5-1): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #11 VELVETEEN (6-1): Major Player. The 71 speed rating is among the best in the field. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
  • #3 FROSTY FOR EVER (10-1): Major Player. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 13 – 8 – 11 – 3

The Plays

Win: #13 at 4-1

Exacta Box: 13,8,11

Pick 3 (races 6-8): #13, 8,11,3 with #7 with #3,2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 4:44 PM ET; Claiming $78k; 1 M Turf; Field of 9 runners.

Best Bet of the Card

  • #7 GOODBETTERBEST (4-1): Best bet of the card. Could be ready for a top effort. Race sets up perfectly. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
  • #3 JILL JITTERBUG (8-1): Contender. Should take a liking to the race shape. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
  • #4 CLASSY'N CONNECTED (2-1): Fringe Contender. Hard to argue with the recent races. Speed figs match up nicely.
  • #9 DOZEN DIAMONDS (3-1): Fringe Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Morales puts this one in with a chance.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 4 – 9

The Plays

Win: #7 at 1-1

Exacta: 7/ 4,9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 5:15 PM ET; Claiming $36k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 13 runners.

  • #3 SHADOW COAST (7-2): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Looks good based on the 83 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
  • #2 GUARDIAN (6-1): Major Player. Looks fast enough off previous efforts. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Foster.
  • #7 ARMY WILDCATTER (6-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
  • #10 WHERE Y'AT (5-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 3 – 2 – 7 – 10

The Plays

Win: #3 at 4-1

Exacta: 3/ 2,7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 5:46 PM ET; Roxelana Stakes presented by LG&E KU $200k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #1 ONE MAGIC PHILLY (5-2): Top pick. Races competitive with the top contenders. Strong early pace figs.
  • #2 JERSEY PEARL (6-1): Major Player. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues. Can run with these.
  • #4 LOTSANDLOTSOFCANDY (7-2): Major Player. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #3 MINK'S PALACE (8-1): Major Player. Ran at this level last out. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 4 – 3

The Plays

Win: #1 at 3-1

Exacta Box: 1,2,4

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 6:16 PM ET; Allowance $127k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 13 runners.

  • #3 WITHOUT (8-5): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Looks good based on the 92 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
  • #5 SEVEN WONDERS (6-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Comes home strong.
  • #6 FORT THOMAS (8-1): Contender. This one's a fighter in the late stages. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #13 WRITE OFF JERRY (10-1): Contender. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Sharp. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 3 – 5 – 6 – 13

The Plays

Win: #3 at 9-5

Exacta: 3/ 5,6

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Chris Adams
Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

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