Valero Texas Open 2026: Preview, Odds & Best Bets

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Last Update: Wed Apr 01, 2026, 1:30 pm ET

Read Time: 10 minutes

Valero Texas Open 2026 odds, preview and best bets at TPC San Antonio, including key stats and betting angles for this week’s PGA Tour event.

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We're just one week away from The Masters, but before we make our way down Magnolia Lane, the Tour stops in San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open.

The 104th edition of this tournament will be played at TPC San Antonio, where eight of the world's top 20 players are in the field, competing for the title while getting a final tune-up before next week's chase for the Green Jacket.

Let's take a look at the Valero Texas Open odds, a course preview of TPC San Antonio, and my best bets.

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Valero Texas Open Odds

Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

Ludvig Aberg (+1400)
Jordan Spieth (+1600)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1600)
Russell Henley (+1800)
Robert MacIntyre (+2000)
Sepp Straka (+2200)
Si Woo Kim (+2200)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Keith Mitchell (+3000)
Maverick McNealy (+3000)
Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000)
Rickie Fowler (+3000)
Alex Noren (+3500)
Johnny Keefer (+3500)
Ryo Hisatsune (+3500)

TPC San Antonio: What to Know

Valero Texas Open 2026 odds, preview and best bets at TPC San Antonio, including key stats and betting angles for this week's PGA Tour event.

TPC San Antonio | San Antonio, Texas

Par: 72
Yardage: 7,438
Greens: Overseeded Poa Trivialis (average speed, elevated)
Fairways: Overseeded Ryegrass (4th narrowest)
Rough: Ryegrass (3 inches, with native areas and heavy brush)
Bunkers: 64
Water in Play: 3
Elevation: 1,100 feet (flat layout)

TPC San Antonio is consistently one of the more demanding non-major stops on Tour, and it's a course that leans heavily on precision, control and strategy.

The course measures over 7,400 yards, but it's not a bomber's track. The fairways are narrow and lined with oak trees and native areas, putting an emphasis on placement off the tee. That said, we haven't seen a major edge in either distance or accuracy separate winners in recent years.

In fact, the last eight winners have averaged 42nd in Driving Distance, while Driving Accuracy has fallen well below the Tour average over the past two years (49% compared to 61%).

Like just about every course we've handicapped this year, gaining strokes on approach will be imperative to contend. TPC San Antonio ranks as the eighth-most difficult layout on Tour for approach play, with a greens in regulation rate of just 56% over the past two years. Much of that difficulty comes from the wind and the firm, demanding conditions.

Even when players are able to navigate the gusts, the challenge doesn't stop there. The greens are elevated with little to no bailout areas, putting a premium on precision. With the amount of undulation, controlling trajectory and finding the correct quadrants becomes critical.

If players do miss, scrambling around the green isn't overly difficult on its own. But it becomes a problem when you find the bunkers surrounding these greens. They're among the toughest on Tour – deep, penal and difficult to recover from.

For those reasons, I'm putting an emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach, Good Drive Percentage, Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better Percentage, Scrambling and Sand Save Percentage, along with SG: Putting on Poa Trivialis.

Par 5 scoring is also critical here. With limited scoring opportunities elsewhere, players have to take advantage of those holes. There are only two non-Par 5s that typically play under par, and this course consistently produces one of the higher double bogey rates on Tour.

Six of the past 11 winners led the field in Par 5 scoring for the week.

NOTE: A quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the top finishing positions wagers, which are including ties, unless noted otherwise.

As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book. 

Sepp Straka, who will be playing at the Open Championship this week - 2025 Open Championship Predictions & Picks

Sepp Straka: To Win (26/1) | Top 30 (-126)

The man who checks in No. 1 in my model this week is 32-year-old Austrian, Sepp Straka.

He's only played six events this season, but outside of a missed cut at The American Express, he's taken advantage of just about every start. His only other underwhelming finish was a T-50 at The Genesis, but aside from that, he hasn't finished worse than T-18 in his other four starts.

Statistically, he's a fantastic fit for this course. He ranks first in SG: APP on difficult-to-very difficult approach layouts over the past 18 months, and this season specifically he's third in SG: APP.

Straka also ranks third in SG: Par 5s and is top 10 in both Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better Percentage.

The list goes on, but if he can avoid the penal bunkers around these greens, there's no reason he shouldn't be in contention come Sunday.

Maverick McNealy: To Win (27/1) | Top 30 (-122) *Not Including Ties*

Maverick McNealy

A third-place finish at last year's Valero Texas Open already makes a strong case for backing Maverick McNealy this week, but the metrics only reinforce it.

McNealy ranks fourth in Bogey Avoidance and fifth in Birdie or Better Percentage over his last 50 rounds in difficult-to-very difficult scoring conditions. He's also 21st or better in SG: PUTT on Poa Trivialis, SG: Par 5s, Good Drive Percentage and SG: Total specifically in the Texas region over the past four years.

He's only missed one cut in seven starts this season, and of the events he's made, his worst finish was a T-32 at THE PLAYERS.

I'm expecting big things out of McNealy this week.

Rickie Fowler: To Win (32/1) | Top 20 (+120)

Could we be due for a rare Rickie Fowler victory this week? I sure wouldn't be opposed.

The 37-year-old Tour veteran has 20 rounds of experience at TPC San Antonio, posting a True SG mark of +0.85. He's recorded three top-20 finishes in his last six starts here, along with a T-30 last year.

Fowler's lack of success with the flat stick on Poa Trivialis and his underwhelming numbers on similar Par 5s are a concern, but there are enough strengths to push him to 10th in my model.

He ranks first in Bogey Avoidance, fifth in Scrambling and 13th in SG: TOT on difficult-to-very difficult scoring conditions over the last 18 months. He's also 22nd in SG: TOT in the Texas region over the past four years and 25th in Good Drive Percentage.

I'm banking on Fowler's experience and current form showing up this week, and at the very least, hopefully cashing us a plus-money top-20 finish.

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Keith Mitchell: To Win (35/1) | Top 30 (-106)

Let's go back to the well with our guy Keith Mitchell, who cashed a Top 30 (+100) ticket with ease last week after finishing T-14 at the Houston Open.

He ranked fifth in my model last week and checks in seventh for this week.

Mitchell loves playing in the Lone Star State. He ranks eighth in SG: Total and 14th in SG: Approach in the Texas region over the last four years.

Additionally, he's second in Birdie or Better Percentage, ninth in SG: Par 5s, and 22nd or better in SG: Approach (this season), Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance.

We'll need a bit more consistency off the tee, but if he finds it, he should once again be in the mix for a top-10 finish.

Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (41/1) | Top 30 (-104)

Ryo

Another familiar face on our betting card is Ryo Hisatsune, who sits ninth in my model for this week.

Outside of Scrambling and Sand Save Percentage, Hisatsune is solid just about everywhere else. Specifically, he's top 20 in Bogey Avoidance, SG: TOT over the last 18 months in difficult scoring conditions, SG: APP (this season), Good Drive Percentage and Birdie or Better Percentage.

He also finished fifth at this event last season, and hasn't missed a cut this year since the season opener at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Hisatsune is flying under the radar down in Texas.

Thorbjorn Olesen: To Win (60/1) | Top 40 (-116)

Thorbjorn Olesen

Our longest odds pick of the week is 36-year-old Dane Thorbjorn Olesen. If you look at his results this season, you may be scratching your head as to why he's on the card. He's missed four cuts in six appearances, with a T-40 at the Cognizant and a T-14 last week at the Houston Open being the two times he's survived the weekend.

But he's another golfer who favors the Texas landscape.

He's played eight rounds at TPC San Antonio and has a +1.68 True SG mark to show for it, including a T-5 in 2025 and a T-14 in 2024.

Olesen is fourth in SG: Par 5, sixth in SG: APP (this season) and 18th in SG: TOT in the Texas region over the last four years.

His lack of success on and around the green is a concern, but I don't mind the outright price, and I especially like his Top 40 odds. I'll be looking to take advantage of that this week.

Best Bets:

Sepp Straka: To Win (26/1) | Top 30 (-126)
Maverick McNealy: To Win (27/1) | Top 30 (-122) *Not Including Ties*
Rickie Fowler: To Win (32/1) | Top 20 (+120)
Keith Mitchell: To Win (35/1) | Top 30 (-106)
Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (41/1) | Top 30 (-104)
Thorbjorn Olesen: To Win (60/1) | Top 40 (-116)

Other Golf Content at Betting News

Want to learn more strategy when it comes to betting on the links? Take a look at our golf betting guide:

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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