John Deere Classic 2026 Odds, Preview & Picks

We're back to the John Deere Classic after some bonus golf last week at the Travelers. There aren't many superstar names in this field, but that doesn't mean making golf picks this week will be any less complicated! Despite not having any Rorys or Scotties of the world playing, there is still some good, young talent teeing it up at the JDC. The tightest-priced players on most books sit anywhere between +1400 and +1600, and this is a course that plays extremely easily. I'm hunting guys who are great with their irons and can putt. However, if I can grab a strong iron player at a generous price and hope for a spike putting week, I'm still interested. Let's dive into my best John Deere Classic picks!

2026 John Deere Classic Odds

This is a really interesting betting board. I'm spreading my bets out a bit wider than usual and going a little cheaper, looking for some longer odds after my first couple of bets. Notable PGA odds via Lucky Rebel:

• Ben Griffin +1600

• Chris Gotterup +1600

• Jackson Koivun +2200

• Keith Mitchell +2500

• Tom Kim +2500

• J.T. Poston +2800

• Keegan Bradley +2800

• Eric Cole +3000

• Michael Thorbjornsen +3000

• Jacob Bridgeman +3500

• Jordan Spieth +3500

• Andrew Novak +4000

• Denny McCarthy +4000

• Michael Brennan +4000

• Rickie Fowler +4000

• Matt Wallace +4500

• Pierceson Coody +4500

• Ryo Hisatsune +4500

• Sungjae Im +4500

• Aldrich Potgieter +5000

• Blades Brown +5000

• Daniel Berger +5000

• Davis Thompson +5000

• Doug Ghim +5000

• Jackson Suber +5000

• Michael Kim +5000

2026 John Deere Classic Picks & Best Bets

A quick note before we dive in: just like at the Travelers, I'm leaning into each-way bets this week, given how scorable this course is. I'll list the outright Lucky Rebel number for each guy and also note the each-way/places structure I'm playing. I'm spreading the card wide and going cheaper down the board. Here are the win-only odds via Lucky Rebel:

• Ben Griffin (+1600)

• Jackson Koivun (+2200)

• Tom Kim (+2500)

• Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000)

• Aldrich Potgieter (+5000)

• Emiliano Grillo (+6000)

• Max Homa (+6500)

• Carson Young (+10000 – pizza money)

• Matthieu Pavon (+15000 – Pizza Hut money)

• Didn't make the card but considered: Eric Cole, Doug Ghim, AJ Ewart

TPC Deere Run Course Preview

• Location: Silvis, Illinois

• Par & Length: Par 71, easy scoring level

• Recent Winners: Brian Campbell (-18), Davis Thompson (-28), Sepp Straka (-21)

The winning scores tell the story here — we're talking -18 to a ridiculous -28 across the last three years. This is a birdie-fest where putting and iron play reign supreme, and scrambling barely matters. I'm looking for guys who hit their irons well and can roll the rock, with a heavy lean toward players priced generously enough to make a spike putting week pay off in a big way.

Ben Griffin: To Win (+1600)

Best Bet: To win outright at 16-1

We'll start at the top. Griffin had a pretty miserable start to the season, but he's really picked things up. In fact, he's the highest-ranked golfer in my personal model this week. It's not by much, but it's nice to see, and he also grades out with the highest course fit.

Griffin missed the cut here last year but tied for fifth in 2024. His iron play looks back on track after a Jekyll-and-Hyde couple of months to start 2026, but he's now gained strokes on approach in four straight tournaments. The one thing we know that's typically sticky about Griffin's game is that he's a great putter, and that part of his game looks to be humming again too. Off the tee has been a bit hit-or-miss, but zoom out, and he's gained strokes in 10 of his last 12 tournaments. None were exactly spike weeks, but the floor is high.

With the approach play back and the putter mostly rolling, I think he has a very good chance to win this thing. Griffin has two finishes of T-3 or better since the beginning of May, and he's fresh off a T-10 at the Travelers and an impressive T-17 in those brutal U.S. Open conditions.

Jackson Koivun: To Win (+2200)

Best Bet: To win outright at 22-1

The kid is going to be a beast, but is he ready now? This feels like a bit of a fish pick, but I can't help myself here. Koivun has been absolutely dominant at the collegiate level, and he's looked good during his PGA TOUR appearances. According to Data Golf, he carries the top amateur ratings out there. Historically, he ranks up there with some elite company when you compare his strokes-gained numbers to other amateurs just before they turned pro.

Some interesting context I picked up from Bet The Number Golf (@BTNGolf): notable amateurs in their first pro starts have opened at numbers like Ludvig Aberg at 50-1 and Luke Clanton at 35-1. Koivun is right in that conversation in terms of talent, and he's on the short list of favored golfers this week. The youngster is also a great putter, and he finished T-11 here at the John Deere last year — and that was while losing well over a stroke on approach! He's looked the part in his PGA starts as an amateur, too, finishing T-23 at the U.S. Open while gaining strokes in all four major facets of the game on a brutal Shinnecock Hills track, which is seriously impressive.

I don't love having two guys on my card in the 20-to-22-1 range, but I cannot pass on a piece of the pie with a kid who can win this thing on a very scorable layout. This event is annually winnable for almost anyone, and I love that Koivun can putt with the best of them.

Tom Kim: To Win (+2500)

Best Bet: 45-1, three places

Kim has been on a roll lately, and he actually ranks 10th in my model overall, so I love this number on him. With Kim, the narrative is always: can he putt? Let's just say there's a perception out there that he can't, but he's actually a slightly above-average PGA TOUR putter. He's gained strokes putting in three straight tournaments, which I really like, and his iron game has been awesome too, gaining strokes on the field in six straight starts. Kim is hot at the right time.

He missed the cut at the John Deere last year, but he actually picked up well over two strokes on approach there and just lost over two off the tee, which is a true anomaly number for him. Kim is coming off a solo third at the U.S. Open and a T-15 the week before at the RBC Canadian. We might be able to bottle some lightning here at the right time, and perhaps that misleading missed cut from last year is throwing some people off. Kim carries the fifth-best "trending golfer" bonus in my model this week.

Michael Thorbjornsen: To Win (+3000)

Best Bet: 50-1, three places

Thorbjornsen ranks eighth in my model this week, and he has the third-best course fit out of anybody in the field. We haven't seen him break through on TOUR yet — so why not now, in a tournament like this?

He has fantastic course history here, going back to 2023: a T-17, a T-2, and a T-21, gaining strokes on approach and off the tee in those appearances. Those trends fit the bill perfectly. He's had some nice finishes this year, including a T-3 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T-16 two weeks ago at the Charles Schwab. Yes, he's really long and bombs it off the tee, but I think he's a more well-rounded golfer than the public gives him credit for. If he can catch a spike putting week, he's a name that could surprise some people at the top of the board. He clearly likes it here.

Aldrich Potgieter: To Win (+5000)

Best Bet: 80-1, three places

This might not feel like a great course fit for him, but there's a real chance Potgieter just bullies this place into submission and brutes some of the drivable holes. And he's shown a lot more than just being extremely long off the tee, which is what people know him for.

This summer, he's gained putting strokes on the field in five straight tournaments. That's an awesome development considering he lost a ton of strokes on the greens in the previous four. His approach game comes and goes, but he's gained strokes there in three of the last four. He's coming off a T-8 at the RBC Canadian earlier in June and has made five straight cuts. He typically capitalizes on easy courses, and with his approach looking solid and his putting money by his standards, the 21-year-old could be a dark horse to finally break through this week.

Emiliano Grillo: To Win (+6000)

Best Bet: 80-1, three places

Grillo has always been a model darling. He typically pops because he's so accurate off the tee with solid approach play. He's playing decent golf right now, coming off two straight top-25 finishes, and he's gained strokes putting in two straight tournaments. I love that his ball will be in the fairway on an easy course, giving him plenty of chances to attack pins if the approach game shows up.

His course history is tremendous, and while that's not something to hang your entire hat on, it's a nice ingredient in the recipe. In three starts at the John Deere, he has a T-2, a solo second, and a missed cut. He gained strokes on approach in two of those three appearances, off the tee in all three, and putting in two of three. Decent form, a hot putter for two weeks running, and great course history. This is a really nice number on an easy course, another guy who thrives in these birdie fests.

Max Homa: To Win (+6500)

Best Bet: 90-1, three places

Starting to really scale down the unit size here. Homa is a household name with a weird recent career trajectory. Honestly, maybe I should take the shorter number and bet him five places, but I can't get over this price. We know a couple of things about Homa: he's won on the PGA TOUR multiple times, and even through a stretch of not-so-great finishes, he's reeled off two straight top-25s.

The one thing that's remained consistent throughout his career is his putting. Homa is typically one of the best putters on TOUR, and that's not an issue right now. Across the last seven tournaments, he only lost strokes putting at the PGA Championship, which I'll give a pass. The question is whether the iron play will be there, and your guess is as good as mine. He has mixed history here but pulled a T-5 last year on the back of gaining strokes on approach and off the tee. We know the putter will show up, and putting will be huge this week with scores approaching or eclipsing -20. I'm cool with a little bet on Homa on a course like this.

Carson Young: To Win (+10000)

Best Bet: 90-1, five places

Now we're talking tiny, tiny sprinkles — the kind of degenerate long-shot bets where if you can find a reason, you go for it. Young has been around a while now; he's 31 and hasn't always stuck on TOUR. But he's playing really good golf on the Korn Ferry Tour right now, and — what if I told you he shot a 61 in one of the rounds during last week's KFT event?

Zoom out, and he's played the John Deere each of the last three years, with two consecutive T-5 finishes in the last two. He gained strokes putting and on approach in both of those events. This is a true moonshot, but the recent course history is excellent, the form is there, and he's coming off a big spike round, which can be an indicator of what's to come. If this were a tougher course, I wouldn't even consider it, but since it's so gettable, I'm willing to take a guy who's grease-fire hot with great form.

Matthieu Pavon: To Win (+15000)

Best Bet: 140-1, eight places

This is probably a ridiculous bet here. We're talking half of a Pizza Hut personal pan pizza in unit size. It hasn't been pretty for Pavon, but he's popped on TOUR in the last couple of years, and we're hunting for a reason to play someone at absurd odds.

He's gained approach strokes in four of his last five tournaments and gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six. Still, some mixed and ugly results, but it's an easy course, and if he does those two things here, anything is possible.

Our Pizza Hut money play of the week is typically an average putter, and we'll need that to show up. But he did post a T-20 at the RBC Canadian, which was a good sign. As far as I can tell, he's never teed it up here at the JDC.

It's been quite some time since Pavon picked up approach and off-the-tee strokes to this degree — you'd have to look back to his 2024 season around his Farmers Insurance win for a comparable stretch. He also had a run earlier this season where he gained strokes putting in four of five tournaments, and we'll need that flat stick to come back. This is a disgusting, low-risk, high-reward play — probably the grossest bet I'll make this summer. God forbid he puts it all together at this massive number, and eight places is quite reasonable.

Good luck!

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