Will the Seagulls Fly High at Home? Expert Picks for Sunday’s EPL Slate
Written by: BettingThePitch
Last Update: Sun Oct 18, 2026, 10:02 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
EPL
Yesterday wasn't exactly the Saturday we were hoping for with our article plays.
We finished with one win and one push, but Newcastle and Aston Villa certainly left me frustrated.
The two sides combined for more than 30 shots and created plenty of chances. Somehow, though, we only saw one goal.
However, we're moving on to another beautiful Sunday with a full Premier League slate ahead of us.
I've found two matchups I really like today, including one where I'm continuing to fade a struggling Manchester United side.
Let's get into the plays!
Featured Plays
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
I really like Brighton at home in this matchup.
The Seagulls have been playing some excellent attacking football, and I expect them to put up a crooked number today.
Both teams were in action during the week, so neither side has a significant advantage in terms of rest.
However, the circumstances surrounding those matches were quite different.
Crystal Palace had to travel to France for a difficult fixture against Lyon. Meanwhile, Brighton enjoyed a much more comfortable afternoon at home.
The Seagulls rotated several key players and cruised to an impressive 4-0 victory.
More importantly, they didn't have to travel and should be in a much better position physically heading into today's match.
That's a significant advantage against a Palace side coming off a demanding European fixture.
Brighton have also been in excellent form recently.
The hosts have won four consecutive matches, scoring at least twice in every one of those victories.
Additionally, they've been especially dangerous in front of their home supporters.
Brighton are averaging nearly three goals per home match this season.
That's an impressive number, especially considering the defensive struggles of today's opponent.
Crystal Palace currently rank dead last in the Premier League in expected goals against (xGA).
That's right. No team in the league has allowed more expected goals than Palace.
Now, they have to travel to face one of the more productive home attacks in England.
That's a matchup I really like for Brighton.
However, I don't want to completely dismiss Palace's chances of contributing offensively.
I've actually been impressed with their attack at times this season.
They've shown they can create opportunities, even when the results haven't necessarily gone their way.
More importantly, both teams have been involved in plenty of high-scoring matches.
Six of Brighton's last eight games have produced at least three goals. Meanwhile, Palace have seen the same result in six of their last eight.
Those trends certainly support what I'm expecting today.
I think Brighton will control large portions of this match and create plenty of quality chances.
However, Palace have enough attacking talent to find the back of the net themselves.
Ultimately, I expect the hosts to do most of the heavy lifting offensively.
With Brighton's current form, Palace's defensive numbers, and both teams' recent scoring trends, this looks like an excellent spot for goals.
Give me goals at the Amex!
Play: Brighton vs. Crystal Palace Over 3 Goals (-110)
Leeds United vs. Manchester United
Calvert-Lewin and Leeds will look to stay unbeaten at home against Manchester United today.
I honestly don't know how anyone can confidently back Manchester United right now.
This team has been an absolute mess throughout the season, and things didn't get any better during the week.
United suffered another disappointing defeat, losing 2-0 on the road against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
However, the result wasn't even the biggest talking point afterward.
Starting center back Lisandro Martinez appeared to criticize the club's leadership, suggesting United hadn't done enough during the transfer window.
Essentially, he questioned whether the squad had been given the necessary reinforcements to compete at this level.
That's certainly not what you want to hear following another European defeat.
Interestingly, though, I wonder whether those comments could actually galvanize the squad.
They shifted some attention away from manager Michael Carrick and the team's latest poor performance.
Additionally, some Manchester United supporters seem to agree with what Martinez had to say.
Perhaps that creates a little extra motivation heading into today's match.
However, even if United respond emotionally, traveling to Elland Road is no easy assignment.
Leeds have been extremely difficult to beat at home this season.
In fact, they have yet to lose a home match.
They're organized defensively, difficult to break down, and always seem to raise their level in front of their supporters.
That's a concerning matchup for a Manchester United team still searching for its identity.
United have managed just two victories this season, coming against Ipswich and Sabah in the Champions League.
Neither result exactly inspires confidence.
More importantly, we've seen very little consistency from this squad on either side of the ball.
They've struggled to create quality opportunities while continuing to make costly defensive mistakes.
That's why I'm looking to fade them again today.
However, rather than taking Leeds outright, I'm pairing their double chance with Both Teams To Score.
I think this gives us a much better price while still allowing United to contribute offensively.
Despite all their struggles, Manchester United have enough individual talent to find one goal.
And honestly, that's all I need from them today.
Meanwhile, Leeds have shown they can compete with anyone at Elland Road.
I expect the hosts to make things difficult from the opening whistle and create opportunities against this vulnerable United defense.
Of course, there's always the possibility that Martinez's comments spark some sort of response from the visitors.
However, until Manchester United show me something different on the pitch, I'm going to continue fading them.
Ultimately, I see this finishing either 1-1 or 2-1 in favor of Leeds.
Both results would cash our ticket.
At +135, I think we're getting excellent value on a Leeds side that remains unbeaten at home.
Give me the hosts to take at least a point, with both teams finding the back of the net.
Play: Leeds Double Chance + Both Teams To Score (+135)
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