Can Villa Continue Their Hot Run? Expert Picks for Today’s EPL Slate
Written by: BettingThePitch
Published: Fri Oct 16, 2026, 11:00 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
EPL
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-0.25
-112
3
+102o
+120
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+0.5
-135
3
+127u
+230
We've made it to the weekend!
It's another beautiful Saturday, and we have a massive slate of football across Europe.
We're coming off an excellent midweek with our Champions League and Europa League article plays. Now, we're looking to carry that momentum into the weekend.
Fortunately, the Premier League has some fantastic matchups on today's schedule.
I've found two games that really stand out, and both have the potential to produce plenty of goals.
Let's get into the plays!
Featured Plays
Brentford vs. Liverpool
Can Thiago and Brentford take advantage of an injured Liverpool side?
There are still some questions surrounding Liverpool's lineup heading into this matchup.
It looks like Dominik Szoboszlai could return, but Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo remain questionable.
Of course, I'm writing this the night before kickoff. So, if you're considering any player props, make sure to check the confirmed lineups first.
However, regardless of who starts, I think we're going to see plenty of goals.
Brentford have quietly been one of the better attacking teams in the Premier League this season.
The Bees currently rank inside the top three in expected goals. Meanwhile, Liverpool also sit inside the top 10 despite underperforming their underlying attacking numbers.
That tells me both teams are creating opportunities, even if the finishing hasn't always been there.
I also think Bradley Barcola's performance in the Champions League could be a turning point for him.
Sure, it came against weaker opposition, but scoring a hat trick can do wonders for a player's confidence.
Sometimes, that's all it takes to spark a strong run of form.
However, my biggest concern with Liverpool heading into this match is their defending.
They struggled badly during their midweek Champions League fixture against Austrian opposition.
Liverpool conceded five big chances, three goals, and more than 2.0 expected goals in that match.
Those are concerning numbers, especially considering the level of competition.
Now, they have to travel again and face one of the Premier League's most productive attacks.
That's not exactly an ideal matchup for a defense that has been giving up quality chances.
Brentford are averaging just over two goals per home match this season. Additionally, six of their eight league games have produced at least three goals.
If Liverpool defend the way they did midweek, I genuinely think Brentford could score three themselves.
However, I also expect Liverpool to create chances going forward.
Even with some potential absences, they have enough attacking quality to trouble this Brentford defense.
Ultimately, I think both teams will have opportunities to find the back of the net.
I actually lean toward Brentford getting a result here, especially if Isak and Gakpo remain unavailable.
However, I prefer attacking the total rather than picking a side.
Both teams rank highly in expected goals, and Liverpool's recent defensive performances leave plenty of room for concern.
With Over 3, we also get our money back if the match finishes with exactly three goals.
At -105, I really like the value.
Give me goals in this one!
Play: Brentford vs. Liverpool Over 3 Goals (-105)
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa
This might be my favorite matchup on the entire Premier League slate.
Saturday night, under the lights at St. James' Park.
I mean, what more could you ask for?
Newcastle welcome an Aston Villa side that has been playing some fantastic football recently.
The visitors are coming off an impressive 6-0 Champions League victory over Turkish side Fenerbahce.
Additionally, Manzambi and Jackson have been in excellent form and will look to carry that momentum into this matchup.
Villa haven't lost in their last five matches. More importantly, their last seven games have all produced at least three goals.
The attack has been clicking, but their defense hasn't always been as convincing.
Villa have managed just one clean sheet during that seven-match stretch, which came in their most recent Champions League fixture.
However, this matchup presents a completely different challenge.
Newcastle are back home after a disappointing road loss to Coventry following the international break.
Because of that, I expect a much better response from the Magpies today.
There's also an interesting scheduling angle that could work in Newcastle's favor.
Villa played a midweek Champions League match and have another European fixture coming up on Tuesday.
That creates a difficult turnaround, especially with a trip to St. James' Park sandwiched between those games.
As a result, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some tired legs from the visitors in the second half.
Newcastle should look to take advantage of that.
The hosts have yet to lose at home this season. Additionally, every one of their home matches has produced at least three goals.
That's a trend I certainly like heading into this matchup.
However, Newcastle have also been vulnerable defensively.
They're conceding nearly two goals per home match, which is concerning against a Villa attack playing this well.
Even with home-field advantage, I don't expect Newcastle to keep the visitors quiet for 90 minutes.
On the other side, Villa's recent defensive record suggests Newcastle should create plenty of chances themselves.
That's why I think this matchup has all the ingredients for an entertaining, end-to-end battle.
Both teams have shown they can score, while neither defense has been particularly reliable.
More importantly, Newcastle should be motivated to respond after their disappointing loss.
Meanwhile, Villa will want to continue their excellent run of form despite a demanding schedule.
I expect both sides to play at a high tempo and create opportunities throughout the match.
Ultimately, I think three goals should be the minimum we're targeting here.
And at even money, we're getting a number I really like.
The push protection on exactly three goals makes this even more appealing.
Give me an entertaining Saturday night at the Park!
Play: Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Over 3 Goals (+100)
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