UEFA Europa League Quarterfinals, UEL Picks and Predictions: April 16, 2026

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Thu Apr 16, 2026, 10:40 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Morgan Rogers leads Villa with five assists and ranks second on the team with nine goals, trailing only Ollie Watkins - Aston Villa Liverpool Picks

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The UEFA Champions League is finally down to our final four teams, as their quarterfinals wrapped up yesterday. Congrats to Atlético Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal, and Bayern Munich, who will represent four different leagues in the UCL Semifinals. However, the UEFA Europa League will find out their final four teams today as well, as the second legs of the UEL Quarterfinal matches take place this afternoon. Let's dive into our expert picks and see what our analysts are wagering on today on the pitch.

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UEFA Europa League Picks and Predictions – April 16

Today begins the second legs of these matches. All that matters is aggregate score, and we have two matchups tied, while SC Freiburg has a 3-0 lead on the road, and Aston Villa defends their 3-1 lead at home. Let's find out whats worth wagering on today!

Aston Villa vs. Bologna UEFA Europa League Picks

Ollie Watkins and Aston Villa are one win away from the UEL Semifinals - UEL Picks

Ollie Watkins and Aston Villa are one win away from the UEL Semifinals

Aston Villa Leads 3-1 on aggregate

Best Bet: Aston Villa Double Chance/Under 2.5 (+130) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

We are getting creative and building a little same game parlay in this contest. Let's take the hosts on the double chance line (+0.5) and pair it with the under 2.5, as I expect this to be a tight, low scoring match. The hosts already lead by two goals, and likely won't need to score in order to advance. Does that mean they won't be aggressive? No. But they'll need to focus on bracing for this Italian attack that they know will be coming their way for the entirety of the match.

I have not been impressed with Bologna's offense, especially on the road. At home in the first leg, they scored in the 90′ minute, but still allowed another in stoppage time to their visitors. The Italians were able to create 19 total shots, but just four of them found the target, while Aston Villa also only had four on frame, but three found the back of the net, and they still put half of their total shots on target. Much more efficient offense from the English side.

At home, they should have no problem defending, and ultimately I see this being a 1-1 draw at best, but more than likely a 1-0 Aston Villa win. Either result would give us a plus money winner.

Prediction: Aston Villa Wins 1-0 (+625)

Nottingham Forest vs. FC Porto UEFA Europa League Picks

William Gomes has four goals in the UEFA Europa League for FC Porto - UEL Picks

William Gomes has four goals in the UEFA Europa League for FC Porto

Tied 1-1 on aggregate

Best Bet: FC Porto to Advance (+107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in their last match, so whomever wins this contest moves on to the next round. If things are tied after 90 minutes, we will have two 15 minute periods of extra time, followed by penalty kicks if needed. In the first leg in Portugal, the hosts dominated the stat sheet. They controlled 52% of possession, won the corner kick battle 5-2, and had more shots on frame than Nottingham Forest did overall. FC Porto put half of their shots on target (8/16), while Forest put just two of their six total shots on frame. Forest also needed an own goal in order to tie things up after conceding in the 10′ minute.

While I have been impressed with Forest so far this season, they are trending in the wrong direction, and I think FC Porto can flex their muscle tonight on the road. Porto are currently on top of the Portuguese Liga table, leading Sporting CP by five points. While their focus could be on winning their domestic league, they are unbeaten in their past eight matches overall, winning six of those contests. They are also unbeaten in 12 of their last 13 overall, with the one loss coming to Sporting CP, who just got eliminated from the UEFA Champions League yesterday. Give me Porto to find a way to move on against this inferior opponent.

Prediction: FC Porto Wins 2-1 (+1000)

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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