UEFA Champions League, Round of 16, 2nd Leg: March 6th, 2024
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Wed Mar 06, 2024, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
soccer
The UEFA Champions League is back as the Round of 16 has the second leg of play today! Two teams are set to be eliminated as we get the tournament from 16 teams down to 8 in the next two weeks.
Today in the UCL we have:
- Manchester City vs FC Copenhagen
- Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Let's break these games down and find our best bets!
Manchester City vs FC Copenhagen
In this second leg, Manchester City is at home and leading 3-1 on aggregate. While it's true that they can sit back and coast their way into the Quarterfinals, I think they have a strong showing. They haven't lost in four straight games in all competitions, and their last outright loss came way back in the beginning of December.
This team is focused in both the EPL and UCL and are playing great soccer.
It will take a miracle for Copenhagen to advance today, and while stranger things have happened, I do not think they find the back of the net once.
I think Manchester City record a shutout victory here, but when lineshopping, the best price I could find will actually be taking Copenhagen's team total under 0.5 for (-122) on Bovada. This eliminates the need for Manchester City to win this game, although I think they do, and instead we just need them to shutout their inferior visiting opponent.
It really shouldn't be a problem for a team of this caliber.
The Pick: FC Copenhagen TT Under 0.5 (-122) Bovada
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Madrid hosts Leipzig with a 1-0 aggregate leading heading into Wednesday's game. RB Leipzig will be on their heels all match and are fighting to keep their UEFA Champions League hopes alive. On the road against Real Madrid, this is a very tough ask.
Leipzig significantly struggles on the road. Despite coming off a 4-1 road win, they have not faired well against SOLID competition in away matches.
RB Leipzig on the Road:
- 2-1 L @ Munich
- 2-2 D @ Augsburg
- 5-2 L @ Stuttgart
- 2-3 W @ Dortmund
- 3-2 L @ Man City
- 2-1 L @ Wolfsburg
- 1-0 L @ Wolfsburg
The track record does not help them. Real Madrid has shutout their visiting opponents in their L2 home games, and I expect a solid defensive effort from them today.
Ultimately, I will be taking the Total Goals in the match Under 3 (+110) on Bovada. For starters, we have a plus chicken play with push potential. You gotta love that.
Secondly, I really think this game is played to a nil-nil or 1-1 draw, or a 1-0 Madrid win. I see Real Madrid advancing no matter what, but I could see them playing to a stalemate after 90 minutes.
Madrid will have no motivation to score unless Leipzig were to do so first, and if Madrid nets one early, I expect Leipzig to really fall down for the rest of the match.
I see Madrid equalizing to 1-1 if they concede early, but I do not think we see more than 2 goals in this contest tonight. If you feel so inclined, Under 2.5 is listed for (+163) at the same book.
Godspeed.
The Pick: Madrid/Leipzig Under 3 (+110) Bovada
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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