The UEFA Champions League quarterfinals are off and running as Inter Milan and Arsenal both won the first leg of their matchup yesterday. But today we've got more soccer to discuss as we have two more matches in Europe, so of course we had to find our best bets in both contests.
Barcelona is a huge home favorite and for good reason. They have been dominant all UCL season, as well as in La Liga. They are unbeaten in 2025, as one needs to go back to December 22nd to find their most recent loss. This team is in incredible form and shows no signs of slowing down.
Dortmund are coming off two straight wins, beating two teams ahead of them in the Bundesliga in order to gain some points. However, on the road they were shutout by RB Leipzig a couple matches ago. Dortmund has no choice but to play conservative in this matchup, hope for a draw and to try and win it in Germany next week. But I do think this Barcelona attack will be too much for them to handle.
Although I am not betting it, I could see Barcelona scoring enough to make it ugly early, which is why I lean on them to cover.
You know me, I am not afraid of the juice. Both of these teams have played very well offensively so far in this competition, but their defense has really stuck out to me.
Aston Villa have allowed just 7 goals across their 10 UCL matches this season. PSG has conceded just 10 in their 12 matches. So both teams, while scoring 2+ goals per game are not even allowing one to their foe. This screams under to me, especially with the way Villa has been playing.
Villa is on the road today, which leads me to believe they will play as conservative as possible. A draw is fine with them, as they would have a huge advantage going back home tied on aggregate. On the flip side, PSG likes to play fast and very aggressive, leading me to think Villa focuses on the defensive side of things. PSG played Liverpool to a 1-0 match in both Round of 16 games, eventually winning in PKs. They were upset at home, as Liverpool snuck in a goal after being outshot 27-2.
Villa will sit back and brace for the PSG attack, which will lead to a low scoring game in my eyes.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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